Following up on the conversation starter from Gluckman, Clark & Fyfe (GCF), universal quarantine for arrivals constrains the number of arrivals/day we can handle. So we need to ration that capacity.

Ideally in a way that also signals the value of expanding it, which implies pricing it, so we can see who is willing to pay.

Presumably returning kiwis would always get the opportunity

...to return. beyond that, you'd think that longer-stayers would be more willing to pay for their quarantine, such as students.

maybe nz will become even more desirable as a destination for foreign students now that USA and UK are failing so obviously on Covid.

some very rough calculations follow regarding the impact on the visitor economy of maintaining strict quarantine. I'm going to assume that (a) foreign students can be accommodated in existing quarantine facilities and will come in similar numbers and spend about the same amount

and (b) that strict borders repatriate $4bn of spending that would otherwise have been paid to foreigners by kiwis on holiday (happy to explain this)

also, bear in mind that we kiwis pay 58% of the revenue received by nz tourism businesses.

net impact on visitor economy revenue in this scenario is -19%, which is bad but not a wipeout.