Read on Twitter
Quite a bit to unpack from MLB's first testing round !
-Across players and staff, total +s is 1.2%.
-Don't know denominators for each but looks like players test much higher than staff once again. Max players I'd guess is 30x60=1800, or 1.7% +, which leaves 0.5% staff +ve (1/) https://twitter.com/MLB_PR/status/1279154627003506689
-Across players and staff, total +s is 1.2%.
-Don't know denominators for each but looks like players test much higher than staff once again. Max players I'd guess is 30x60=1800, or 1.7% +, which leaves 0.5% staff +ve (1/) https://twitter.com/MLB_PR/status/1279154627003506689
How do these initial rounds of +s compare to other leagues?
Players:
MLB - 1.7% or higher (no exact denominator)
NBA - 5.3%
NHL - 5.5%
Staff:
MLB - 0.5% or lower
NBA - 1.1% (after multiple rounds over 1 week, so biased up vs. MLB, but probably still truly higher) (2/)
Players:
MLB - 1.7% or higher (no exact denominator)
NBA - 5.3%
NHL - 5.5%
Staff:
MLB - 0.5% or lower
NBA - 1.1% (after multiple rounds over 1 week, so biased up vs. MLB, but probably still truly higher) (2/)
So MLB had way lower positive rate among players vs. NBA and NHL, clocking rates about a third of those leagues.
They also had somewhat lower positives among staff, but gap looks to be much smaller (both in absolute and relative terms). (3/)
They also had somewhat lower positives among staff, but gap looks to be much smaller (both in absolute and relative terms). (3/)
This sets one threshold for suspending the season. If we assume these +s come from infections in the last 2 weeks, then we want to see <1.2% of MLB test +ve in any 2-week period after restarting.
Also need to avoid outbreaks, as explained here. (/end) https://nflinjuryanalytics.com/2020/06/30/what-should-make-returning-leagues-shut-down-for-covid-19/
Also need to avoid outbreaks, as explained here. (/end) https://nflinjuryanalytics.com/2020/06/30/what-should-make-returning-leagues-shut-down-for-covid-19/
Whoooooooa nelly, wait a minute folks. My denominators for players vs. staff breakdowns might be all off. This does *not* necessarily include all 30 teams! So interpret those with caution. We can still compare overall figures, though. https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/1279161470773628928?s=20
One last comment - we don't know anything about outbreaks or clusters. We know there were 38 positives on 19 teams, which is an average of 2 per team, but that doesn't really mean anything. Need more reporting to know anything about that.
One more thing - a 1.2% overall positive rate for MLB players and staff puts them more or less in line with the positive rate we might expect from a random sample of the U.S.
The NBA - at least their players - appeared way above the general population. NHL players, too.
The NBA - at least their players - appeared way above the general population. NHL players, too.
