1/ A few charts to place the covid-19 situation in @Allegheny_Co into context (thanks to data from @HealthAllegheny public site). Note that the data (e.g., case counts, deaths) is regularly updated (i.e., even data from as far back as 1-2 months ago)-I assume because of cleaning

2/ So, these charts use data that was current as of the morning of 7.3.20 and use 7-day averages to smooth out the presentation. I will dip back into these data as time allows and update as/if needed.

3/ I pulled these data and charts together because the panic over positive case counts finally got to me. I had to do something and as a public health scientist myself, this is all I know how to do.

4/ # confirmed covid-19 tests (*not* probable but test-confirmed) and # tests administered. Testing has been increasing steadily since mid-April; daily case counts mostly flat until the recent increase. Targeted testing and/or contact tracing effects to find + cases? Likely...

5/ What about # hospitalizations (this is not cumulative or hospitalized at some point but reported daily hospitalized)? The county has only had four days since mid-April (earliest data that I could find) where daily hospitalizations exceeded 10; most days, < 10 (even in April)

6/ What about # confirmed cases and # hospitalizations? Hospitalizations are ~flat with a very slight uptick from early June (~2+ hospitalizations/day) amid the recent case "spike". Keeping an eye on this one to see if hospitalizations markedly increase through July.

7/ Re, above: It is also possible that more people are being tested for covid-19 while at the hospital for something else - procedures or treatments they put off during the local shutdown, ER visits, etc. leading to positive case increases.

8/ For example, my wife recently had a colonoscopy performed. She was offered a covid-19 test as a part of "routine" care and it came back positive . She was never sick and had no symptoms - still no symptoms a month out. A truly asymptomatic case - but a positive case count.

9/ What about # of confirmed covid-19 deaths? Although its awful to have lost someone to this disease (as I have and probably will lose another person very soon), the county never reported more than 7 deaths a day and has mostly had days with 0, 1 or 2 deaths.

10/ What about # of confirmed covid-19 cases and # confirmed deaths? Even allowing for a ~14 day lag between diagnosis and death, there are no early indications that the case spike is leading to a spike in deaths. Keeping an eye on July's numbers, though.

11/ To the extent that hospitalizations are an indicator of later mortality, what about # hospitalizations and # deaths? Note the highest value on the y-axis is 8 so we're talking small numbers here. So far, no indication that we're in trouble - again, let's see what July brings.

12/ So, in short, I think that these data paint a much, much more positive picture of the health of Allegheny County than only tracking and reporting positive case counts would suggest.

13/ Covid-19 is here and for some people (mostly elderly with significant metabolic comorbidities) it is very serious. But for most of us it is a benign infection and produces few, if any complications. Supporting data for these statements is available everywhere and...

14/ ...the final tweet in this thread lists the twitter handles of some fantastic people committed to objective analysis of data about covid-19.

15/ So, while we should mourn and remember those that we lost to this illness, we need to look for data-sourced light in this darkness. We have much reason for optimism and current local- and state-wide restrictive policies do not match the data we have right in front of us.

16/ Please look @KDKARadio @KDKA @WTAE @WPXI @TribLIVE @WESA @PittsburghPG @ACE_Fitzgerald @HealthAllegheny @GovernorTomWolf @SecretaryLevine @WendyBellPgh

17/ Thanks to these people for keeping the data drive alive (and me, sane) during the pandemic: @tlowdon @EthicalSkeptic @gummibear737 @kerpen @justin_hart @aginnt @AlexBerenson