1/ Weekend research thread. The biggest thing on my mind right now is $TLT and the divergence between tech and income based assets. I sold the last of the MLP's on Thursday. They peaked in value earlier in June when $TLT made its low. That's when the yield curve was widest.

2/ The 'reopening rally' seems to be over. It was going to continue as long as the yield curve kept widening but it's now narrowing, a reflection of income and tax revenue drying up. A widening yield curve is the main driver for $SPX earnings.

3/ $MTUM looks like it made a small blow off top on low volume during the short holiday week. $VXX similarly looks like the inverse, exhausted to the downside.

4/ The $VIX futures forward curve is one of the strangest configurations I've seen. I'm gonna call this the mullet curve.. party in the front, business in the back. Wow..

5/ $WFC has that meltdown look, like the big banks stuffed this one with all the bad loans. Pin the tail on the donkey style. Very little participation in the 'reopening rally', similar to the big name bankruptcies that have already happened since March. https://twitter.com/FlyrUsr/status/1278843520141459457?s=19

6/ $GLD is so strong right now. Interestingly the gold / silver ratio is 98.5, a very high level that usually indicates explosive upside potential for precious metals. I'm playing this with out of the money $SLV calls.

7/ I posted this chart a lot last year as it was rolling over: $SPX / $GOLD ratio chart. This is now in a solid down trend, and likely still early in the move. Stocks priced in terms of gold can reveal clear and powerful trends.

8/ $COPPER is one of the cleanest trend signals since the market bottom in March. It is faltering now, but still in the uptrend channel. If it continues sliding off over the next couple of weeks, this will be my signal to keep pressing short bets.

9/ As a side note, we just got back from dinner in STL and there was barely anyone out. Costco was out of toilet paper again but they did have hand sanitizer. It feels like lockdown is back on even though it's not official. This is great depression business conditions.

10/ This is a great data point and goes along with what I was saying in the beginning of this thread about income based assets and dividends drying up. The credit cycle is still in crisis. The 'reopening rally' is unlikely to extend into a new bull market. https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1278288966345728001?s=19