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THREAD: main points on the latest govt data that I presented as part of the @IndependentSage open meeting today (you can see full presentation and discussion here ) 1/9
The number of deaths has been quite steady for last few week at a highish 100-180 cases. Over 150 on Tues and Weds this week, down to 89 yesterday but sadly back up to 137 today (number just released)... 2/9
The number of new confirmed cases is declining - some of that due to a new way of counting the +ve cases. But data only measures those who've tested +ve and we don't know how many people have new symptoms of COVID but don't get tested... (544 is today's number) 3/9
So how do you get tested? Either in a hospital (e.g. as a patient) "Pillar 1" or by getting a test sent to yr home/ booking a test "Pillar 2". Pillar 2 only started in May & is now most common way to get tested. There was no location data from Pillar 2 tests until this week. 4/9
Thing is, getting a pillar 2 test (outside of a care home) relies on 1) you knowing you have symptoms of COVID, 2) knowing you should get a test & 3) actually booking and taking a test. So likely that lots of people with COVID aren't getting tested & don't appear in the stats 5/9
This matters because we need to find as many people with COVID as possible so can trace their contacts & ask them to isolate. Estimate of new infections from ONS (~25K a week) and holding steady there, & assuming 40% get symptoms. Test & trace should find all ppl w symptoms 6/9
But the NHS Test and Trace report numbers suggest that only about a third of new people with symptoms are getting to the stage of providing at least one close contact. 7/9
This is not great. But of the contacts they've identified how many do they reach & ask to isolate? Turns local public health teams reach almost all their contacts but central teams only about half... More contacts now coming through central teams so needs to improve! 8/9
Finally, contact tracing *only* works if contacts of newly infected people do isolate. We have no data on whether they do or not. Isolating is challenging - the govt needs to provide support to do it (e.g. financial, practical) *and* give people a reason to (protect others). END
