an easy mistake to make when looking at data series you have not worked with before is to anchor them in anomalous periods.

97% ICU utilization sounds really scary, esp when it's up from 70%, but it's not.

it was 95% last year. THAT is normal. it's 70% that was weird.

ICU beds are expensive to keep and staff. so hospitals do not do that. they try to keep them full.

then they add more if they need them.

but they can easily add 50-100% to ICU capacity.

so even 100% utilization is really only 50-75% utilization.

if you've never watched a hospital before, you may not realize that it's generally chaotic and busy.

that's what they WANT. a hospital that runs 75% full will be out of business in short order.

but they also know what they're doing and how to plan.

they know this isn't scary.

people freaked out when children's hospital looked to take adults.

but they are not doing it because hospitals are overwhelmed.

they are doing it because they are at 68% capacity and that will put them out of business if they keep it up.

90-95% is normal. 68% is chapter 11.

perspective matters and media scare stories about "hospitals at 85% capacity" are literally presenting below avg hospital census as a crisis because they mistook march numbers for normal.

it's like saying "temperatures rose 60 degrees since february!" and missing seasonality.

but this is not even seasonal. this was a bizarre, once in a generation or maybe once in a century blip to low hospital use.

it drove hospitals to near BK. most had to lay off or furlough staff to survive.

so let's keep a little perspective here. https://www.woodlandsonline.com/npps/story.cfm?nppage=67046

3.8% of US hospital capacity is currently covid and some of that is "with covid" not "for covid" esp as nursing home patients get warehoused and need neg tests before the NH will take them back.

this is not a sign of dire strain.