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This could very well be our team next season, so I’ve put together some statistics of how they would fare in the prem. #CFC #Havertz #Werner #Ziyech
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![This could very well be our team next season, so I’ve put together some statistics of how they would fare in the prem. #CFC #Havertz #Werner #Ziyech [Thread]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcAHzk9XgAQM6ls.jpg "This could very well be our team next season, so I’ve put together some statistics of how they would fare in the prem. #CFC #Havertz #Werner #Ziyech [Thread]")
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Goals: 79
Goals Against: 17
xG: 66.34
xGA: 30.88
PSxGA: 33.34
If you compare this to now:
Goals: 57
Goals Against: 44
xG: 56.5
xGA: 32.6
PSxGA: 35.2
(Disclaimer: this is all theoretical)
Goals Against: 17
xG: 66.34
xGA: 30.88
PSxGA: 33.34
If you compare this to now:
Goals: 57
Goals Against: 44
xG: 56.5
xGA: 32.6
PSxGA: 35.2
(Disclaimer: this is all theoretical)
Here’s how I worked it out:
Goals first
- Started with /90 goals but felt wasn’t accurate enough, came out with around 100 goals
- Then found all their xA/90 metrics and tallied it all up
- That came to 1.38/90 and 44.24 over 32 games
Goals first
- Started with /90 goals but felt wasn’t accurate enough, came out with around 100 goals
- Then found all their xA/90 metrics and tallied it all up
- That came to 1.38/90 and 44.24 over 32 games
- I then found out their finishing ability by using G-npxG/90
- Tallied up the difference, which came to 0.32/90 and 10.20 over 32 games
- Adding those up comes to 54.44, which I thought wasn’t right so I tried to make it even more accurate
- Tallied up the difference, which came to 0.32/90 and 10.20 over 32 games
- Adding those up comes to 54.44, which I thought wasn’t right so I tried to make it even more accurate
- So I adjusted for possession, all to 60% (which is our average for the season)
- This came to an xA of 45.52 and a finishing ability of 10.67
- Again 56.18 felt too low, until I realised that not all goals come from a teammates pass
- This came to an xA of 45.52 and a finishing ability of 10.67
- Again 56.18 felt too low, until I realised that not all goals come from a teammates pass
- So I found the ratio of npxG:xA for Chelsea this season
- This came to 1.36, so I then multiplied my xA by that to give 61.84
- Adding the finishing ability to that gave 72.5, which I then rounded to 73
- This came to 1.36, so I then multiplied my xA by that to give 61.84
- Adding the finishing ability to that gave 72.5, which I then rounded to 73
- Considering we scored 6 pens this season and all those player have a perfect record I added 6 to 73, giving 79
- Pens have an xG of 0.75, so 6 pens=4.5
- Adding that to our xG gave 66.34
- Pens have an xG of 0.75, so 6 pens=4.5
- Adding that to our xG gave 66.34
Moving onto defending
- I found all matches where Tomori and Zouma had started for us in a pair this season, that gave 8 matches
- The npxGA of those 8 matches was 7.05 or 0.88/90
- I adjusted this to possession yet again, giving 7.34 or 0.92/90
- I found all matches where Tomori and Zouma had started for us in a pair this season, that gave 8 matches
- The npxGA of those 8 matches was 7.05 or 0.88/90
- I adjusted this to possession yet again, giving 7.34 or 0.92/90
- Over the course of 32 games the xGA would be 29.38
- Due to conceding two pens I added these to our xGA, giving 30.88
- To find the PSxGA I found the ratio between PSxGA:GA this season, which was 1.08
- Multiplying this with 30.88 gave 33.34
- Due to conceding two pens I added these to our xGA, giving 30.88
- To find the PSxGA I found the ratio between PSxGA:GA this season, which was 1.08
- Multiplying this with 30.88 gave 33.34
- To then find out how many goals we would concede I found out Onanas performance compared to his PSxGA in the CL
- He had a PSxGA of 28.1 and conceded 19, meaning he saved 0.51 goals/90
- If he performed the same for Chelsea that’d mean he’d save 16.18 goals in 32 games
- He had a PSxGA of 28.1 and conceded 19, meaning he saved 0.51 goals/90
- If he performed the same for Chelsea that’d mean he’d save 16.18 goals in 32 games
- Subtracting that from 33.34 gives 17.16, I then rounded that 17.
In conclusion if this team was to perform to even just 75% of that we are set for an insane season next year
In conclusion if this team was to perform to even just 75% of that we are set for an insane season next year
@AlexGoldberg_ @ExpectedChelsea @CFCYahya @CFCMod_ @CFCDami @CFC_Vivek @TOSOTC_CFC @matissearmani @mahmirage if you guys could check this out it’d mean a lot. Thanks
