I have had this retweeted into my timeline several times.
Disclaimer: I have no idea who this guy is and have no desire to pick a fight with him or any bear. BUT: this is mathematically almost impossible.
Why?
Because #SPX at 2200 would have a yield way in double figures.
1. https://twitter.com/TicTocTick/status/1278738213050306560
Now, since that is impossible, compared to a yield of 2% on an identical corporate bond, we would no longer be talking of an equity market, but a bankruptcy market. We would literally be talking about investors not believing they would ever get their money back,
2.
..as opposed to seeking a yield on their money. Literally like a bond in a Chapter 11 name. What does it trade at? 20% of nominal? 30%? Who knows! But pennies on the $.
3.
In other words: if the market trades 2200, it is just as likely to trade 220. Or any other number. Because you would have broken the relationship between stock values and yield and you would have an economy in receivership. Which is almost impossible to value.
4.
It would be an apocalyptic scenario with VIX in triple digits (and the first is unlikely to be 1) and where the last thing you would be worried about is the value of SPX. You would be worrying about surviving (literally) the next few hours.
So, be careful what you wish for.
5.
Fortunately, this is so unlikely, that you don't have to spend even a second worrying about it. If it happens, you are dead anyway. And even if you were short, you would not live long enough to collect.
So don't worry, be happy.
6.
You can follow @NickGiva.
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