Actually Kyle, because part of the spike in cases in recent weeks is due to more testing, people are dismissing too strong by how much cases are on the rise (and then hospitalizations and deaths) even if testing were to remain low/strady. https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1278871956083953664

. @kylamb8 Basically, if FL/TX/AZ were to keep testing levels flat, cases there would still be rising followed by hospitalizations and deaths. But because cases rose VERY FAST (due to testing) without the type of hospital/deaths seen in the NE in March and Apeil when cases here

rose, people dismiss the severity of the situation. Are FL/TX/AZ the next New Yorks? Well, this depends in policy/protocol. Don’t send seniors to Nursimg Homes; DO let family to visit a nice few hours a day or else their loved ones will be neglected; do NOT tell people to

stay home until they can’t breathe. They should see a doctor much sooner! Do NOT tell hospital staff to keep changing gowns between every patient. Do NOT send away older staff under the fear that everyone is getting Covid and every senior will die. @GovAbbott @GovRonDeSantis

and @dougducey should basically NOT repeat the NY/NJ mistakes and theit states will save thousands of lives. Finally, many studies indicate that staying indoors is worse for Covid. Back in March/Aprio, people here were told to “shelter in place.” NO! Get out but avoid crowds!

Trump tweeted this within an hour of the above thread because he does not read my tweets which is his loss; not mine. Clueless.

Here is an example: From June 8th through July 3, Florida’s case count jumped from 64,904 to 190,052. Almost trippled, but their ICU use was up only 14.9% in this same time. Even if you want to look at the case count of 2 weeks ago (due to a lag between case date and ICU need),

the case count still doubled but the ICU count is up only 14.9% because most of the case count difference is due to more testing. However, there is also a real rise in cases which would show even if testing remained flat. As a result, the ISU use is up 14.9% in almost a month.

FL is now testing way more than NY did when it had 10K cases a day in April. Had NY tested then what FL is testing now, NY would have 20K - 30K cases per day and this case load led to 700+ daily deaths. Basically, in terms of cases FL has now less than what NY had when 700+ died.

You can argue that even after adjusting for testing differences, FL has now a level of cases that in NY generated 250+ deaths a day and/but FL is for now below 250 daily. Ok. But don’t compare Florida’s current 10K cases/day to New York’s 10K in early/mid-April.

This is by how much Covid deaths were up at the July 9th reporting compared to the totals reported June 10th:

CA 40.8%

FL 43.0%

TX 58.6%

AZ 85.2%

The huge spike im cases caused by a spike in testing blurred the actual rise in cases that were happening in recent weeks.