[THREAD] Why all the numbers point to Brighton staying up (again):

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Much is being discussed about whether Brighton currently exist in the relegation scrap and how many points it should take to stay up.

So - what do the numbers say?

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Brighton points after 32 games (points above relegation zone):
• 17/18: 34 (4)
• 18/19: 33 (2)
• 19/20: 33 (6)

Brighton are in a similar position points-wise to previous seasons, though with the strongest cushion they’ve had.

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Highlighting the cushion between Brighton and the bottom 3, 6 points is the largest it’s been since matchday 12 (Manchester United away in November - 7 point gap).

The win over Arsenal and draw at Leicester were so valuable.

#BHAFC https://twitter.com/albionanalytics/status/1274437652138397708

Points per game (PPG):

Across 38 games, our PPG thus far this season averages out at 39 points (1.03 PPG).

The PPG average of Aston Villa (18th place) after 32 games, applied across a 38 game season, totals just 32 points (0.84PPG).

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Infact, only once in the last 10 Premier League seasons (Burnley 14/15 season - 26 points) has 18th place been on a lower points total after 32 games.

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In the last 10 PL seasons, 73% (22/30) of teams in the bottom 3 after 32 games have been relegated.

Of those 8 outside the bottom 3 following matchday 23 that were eventually relegated, only one team had a higher points cushion than what Brighton do right now.

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Swansea were relegated in 2017/18 despite holding a 7 point lead over the bottom 3 with 6 games to go - they won just 2 points in their final 6 games.

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34.7 is the average points needed to survive over the past 10 years, and has been 33 and 34 in the last 2 seasons where Brighton have been in the league.

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Run-ins:

Although Brighton’s run in is by no means favourable, teams below have even tougher ones:

• Bournemouth’s final 8 opponents averaged 1.51 PPG (third hardest run-in)
• Villa’s final 8 opponents averaged 1.55 PPG (hardest in the league)

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In their 6 games back combined since the season resumed, they’ve lost 5 and drawn one.

The bottom 5 results combined:
• 1 win
• 3 draws
• 12 losses
• 6/48 points

Brighton have taken 4 points from a possible 9 - the best of any side in the bottom 6.

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Why Brighton are by no means safe yet, the ask from them currently is significantly less than what it was last season.

It may be that no more points are needed, though a win would probably all-but-mathematically confirm survival.

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Of course, Potter won’t want to make survival by crawling over the line, and that magic 40 points is still attainable providing Brighton finish strongly.

But the numbers show how difficult it would be for other sides to catch Brighton right now.

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Additionally, it has been interesting to see Potter set up more pragmatically since the season returned.

Brighton have recorded possession values of 41%, 34% and 38%.

Analysis of Brighton as a high/low possession signed under Potter:

#BHAFC https://twitter.com/AlbionAnalytics/status/1276240056907214853

With Brighton’s (current) favourable goal-difference and assuming this would be better than 18th, 36 points would have been enough to stay up in all bar 2 Premier League seasons since 2010.

Brighton are just 1 win/3 draws away from that number.

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