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Congratulations to Mozambique's @IMocambique on their recent Covid19 serology surveillance survey in the city of Nampula (a hot spot). 1/3
In the community, around 5% seem to have been infected.
66% of individuals who have been infected recall no symptoms. 3/3
Market vendors appear among worst hit. 21% of vendors at the city's central market have been infected. 4/4.
Would love to know what % of those found to have been infected previously also took a viral test (not these antibody tests). My guess is we are picking up a very small share of actual cases.
Worth noting that 410 individuals tested positive in the sero-survey! But confirmed Covid-19 cases in Nampula are just 299 (as of 01/07). So a lot of cases *are* being missed.
Here is the calculation:
Another way to think about this: if viral testing coverage were 100%, for a city of ~800k residents, with a (cumulative) Covid19 prevalence rate of 5%, Nampula should have seen around 40,000 confirmed cases, not 300 (in the province).
So the same logic implies a pretty scary ratio of 1 confirmed (=tested) case, for every 130 actual positive cases. Or, less than 1% of all cases are being found.
Note: the population representativeness of the sero-sample is not clear from what I have seen (just a presentation of headline findings). So let's wait until we see the full report.
Either way, this kind of work is really important.
So, thanks once again . @IMocambique
Either way, this kind of work is really important.
So, thanks once again . @IMocambique
Presentation can be found here: https://covid19.ins.gov.mz/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Inquerito-SARS-CoV-2-em-Mocambique_vfinal.pdf
Full marks for transparency!
Full marks for transparency!
