**Crystal Ball Time **

Here's what gonna happen tomorrow:

1) #JobsReport is gonna come out it's gonna show job growth

2) Folks will run around celebrating and the stock market will go up...

...3) We'll lose sight of the fact that we way above 10% unemployment

4) There will be an unspoken assumption that the momentum will continue and some "Mission Accomplished" talk

5) Then unemployment benefits will be attacked as a damper on growth

...

...All the while, we've *already* seen weeks of reasons to be worried about a slowdown and now seeing signs of a retrenchment.

Don't expect rosy numbers in July without something major changing between now and July 12th.

This thread from my colleagues lays out the rationale: https://twitter.com/homebase_data/status/1278365443011551236

#EconTwitter keep us honest