Super stoked to listen in on this to learn how other groups are incorporating climate change to predict fishery distributions. https://twitter.com/lenfestocean/status/1278386556148035585

Cool to learn that this project started with a collab with @COMPASSscicomm and even cooler that this is a “Launch Webinar”, meaning the project is in the beginning stages and @LenfestOcean encourages transparency, engagement, and feedback throughout the project. #LOPWebinar

@pinskylab starts by acknowledging that we’re aware of many marine fisheries species that are shifting their distribution in response to climate change, and in high emissions scenarios we expect that to expand in the future. #LOPWebinar

To effectively manage these climate induced shifts, we need to incorporate best available population models with stakeholder engagement into fisheries management. BUT we end up with a mismatch of timescales between mngmnt and distribution shifts. #LOPWebinar

This becomes more complicated when we incorporate a climate gradient. Especially when we consider that growth and development also takes time to incorporate climate impacts and the heavy impact of fishing. Enter: Dynamic Range Models (DRMs) #LOPWebinar

Goal: to test DRMs of Summer Flounder (fluke), gray triggerfish, spiny dogfish, shortfin squid. The group picked these 4 species to incorporate a range of life histories, species distribution, and future shift potential. #LOPWebinar

Three Questions:
1. Can DRMs forecast changes in species dist.?
2. At what time scales do models have skill?
3. Can incorporating fishing improve DRMs?
#LOPWebinar

Other important goals:
- Open Access
- Learn how to incorporate forecasts into management
#LOPWebinar

Now @AFredston will get into the nitty-gritty! I can’t live tweet this part because I need to pay attention
#LOPWebinar

Thanks @AFredston! Super clear presentation of the super complicated concept of feeding simulation models from Approximate Bayesian Computation of unknown parameters. #LOPWebinar

Now Brandon Muffley of @MidAtlanticFish is detailing how DRMs may be able to be incorporated into management. In his EAFM guidance document (I missed acronym def), climate change & variability is an important chapter that addresses distribution shifts. #LOPWebinar

A 2016 Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the region identified how different species may experience positive, neutral, or negative impacts from climate change. (Hare et al. 2016) #LOPWebinar

As a result, different species will display differences in biological impacts and each may require differ t management attention. To make things more complex, there are THREE disparate management councils along the east coast that incorporate different governance. #LOPWebinar

Morley et al. (2018) projected shifts in thermal habitat and this project with translate that important info into strategic, species-specific models that may be easier to incorporate into existing management plans. #LOPWebinar

Also, DRMs can help identify what new species may be entering the @MidAtlanticFish area and how to address the new suit of species available in this area. #LOPWebinar

Further, this project can reveal the intensity of a few different risk factors, particularly Climate and Species Distributions, in order to evaluate how to best accommodate the challenges they may present #LOPWebinar

@NOAAFisheries and @MidAtlanticFish both prioritize reducing uncertainty around these risks factors and this project addresses this priority directly #LOPWebinar

To wrap, @pinskylab shares that the system code will be available on GitHub in 2022.

Super awesome presentation, thanks all!

People are not messing around with these Qs! (Paraphrased below)

Q: How to incorporate shifts in food webs?
A: Not a focus of this project

Q: How to incorporate changes in fish size due to climate and therefore changes in fishing pressure?
A: DRMs lens themselves well to these questions! It can focus on different size classes bc it uses VB growth

Q: Ecosytem based fisheries management has been hard to incorporate, how quickly can management councils adopt these tools?
A: Can’t know for sure, but the councils need this information. It will require more planning but this project provides info at appropriate timescales

Q: How can this work with data limited highly migratory species?
A: We are focused on data-rich species (lots of info on dist. thru time). But an interesting follow-up Q is: what data do we need? Maybe we can use presence info from fisheries dep. data.

Q: How are species interactions incorporated and what climate factors beyond temp will be included?

A: Approx. Bayesian Comp. can accommodate species int models so it’s a general platform for wide range of Qs

Q: What are computer requirements for running the model?
A: It’s running in Python