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The IMF has updated its GDP projections to a 4.9% decline in 2020. They have a "faster recovery" scenario with a 4.4% decline.
@clequere et al ( https://rdcu.be/b4lg7 ) estimated a 4-7% reduction in CO₂ emissions, that would imply CO₂/GDP increases 1.2% or decreases 2.3%.
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@clequere et al ( https://rdcu.be/b4lg7 ) estimated a 4-7% reduction in CO₂ emissions, that would imply CO₂/GDP increases 1.2% or decreases 2.3%.
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The @clequere et al CO₂ estimates & IMF GDP estimates are completely independent, so this comparison is just a first order “reality check” to make sure CO₂/GDP is within expected ranges.
The new IMF scenarios (June) seem less comparable with the earlier ones (April).
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The new IMF scenarios (June) seem less comparable with the earlier ones (April).
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The IMF simplified in scenarios in its June update:
a) Baseline: zero line in figure
b) Faster recovery in 2020 (blue)
c) Second outbreak in 2021 (red)
The scenarios in 2020 differ by 0.5%, so much harder to compare with @clequere et al.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
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a) Baseline: zero line in figure
b) Faster recovery in 2020 (blue)
c) Second outbreak in 2021 (red)
The scenarios in 2020 differ by 0.5%, so much harder to compare with @clequere et al.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
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For more analysis of these sorts of comparisons, check this thread: https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1264819724434771968
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