In the last three days Allegheny County has reported new cases of 96, 83 and 109 respectively. What’s really disturbing about these numbers is they come on the three weekdays that historically report the lowest numbers due to weekend lags in processing and reporting tests.

If you normalize the reported cases for the last three days (i.e. if you adjust them for the historical lower rates for the days of the week on which they were reported), and take the average of those three normalized numbers, we may very well be averaging 113 cases per day.

If you project from there, we may well report more than 125 cases on Wednesday and more than 152 new cases on Thursday.

If that is true, then new cases in Allegheny County appear to be on a curve in which they are doubling roughly every three days (just a week ago our daily average of new cases was 37).

That’s the same rate at which we watched some of the hottest spots on earth grow. This may be coming at us and coming at us at a furious pace.

We have learned a lot in six months, though, and we can beat this surge back if we are vigilant and act fast. Wear masks. Stay out of indoor areas. Do not dine indoors at any restaurant. Do not go to Church. Do not go to the gym. Don’t go anywhere indoors when you can help it

These are super spreader situations where COVID is most efficiently transmitted.

Do gather in small groups outdoors. Do pray outdoors. Do workout in your gym’s parking lot or in a park. Do get takeout and enjoy it in the park or on your patio. Get outside and enjoy the warm weather while we’ve got it, friends.