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Two weeks ago, Politico accurately described what @realDonaldTrump and @parscale and @jaredkushner know: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/trump-polls-biden-324210
Two weeks ago, Politico accurately described what @realDonaldTrump and @parscale and @jaredkushner know: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/trump-polls-biden-324210
"Some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage."
"That was precisely the problem in 2016:"
"The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states."
"And those issues haven’t been fixed."
But that's only PART of the issue.
Trump's team creates NEW battleground states.
The TRADITIONAL battleground states will almost certainly go the way they did in 2016.
So the goal is to take states the Democrats think they don't have to defend.
Trump's team creates NEW battleground states.
The TRADITIONAL battleground states will almost certainly go the way they did in 2016.
So the goal is to take states the Democrats think they don't have to defend.
It's the 2016 strategy PLUS the 2020 strategy.
I urge everyone to study the 1948 election.
Here's a great oral history:
https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/library/oral-histories/brayw
I urge everyone to study the 1948 election.
Here's a great oral history:
https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/library/oral-histories/brayw
Truman started campaigning in AUGUST.
Got that?
Less than three months before the election.
The ENTHUSIASM for him was off the charts.
You worry about Trump not being able to have huge rallies.
HE DOES.
Got that?
Less than three months before the election.
The ENTHUSIASM for him was off the charts.
You worry about Trump not being able to have huge rallies.
HE DOES.
About 14 million people watched his Tulsa rally.
I myself would never attend a Trump rally, despite my unqualified support of him.
I hate crowds, I hate standing in line, and I hate noise.
One of my careers involved the music industry.
I NEVER WENT TO CONCERTS.
I myself would never attend a Trump rally, despite my unqualified support of him.
I hate crowds, I hate standing in line, and I hate noise.
One of my careers involved the music industry.
I NEVER WENT TO CONCERTS.
In 1948, they didn't televise full rallies.
But does THIS sound familiar?
But does THIS sound familiar?
"Leaving the train at Dexter, Iowa, we went to a big outdoor area where more than a hundred thousand people were expected."
"They were arriving by plane, train, bus and car, and it was quite a sight to see this mass of humanity assemble to hear the President's first major speech on the farm situation. It was boiling hot; the temperature was between 110 and 115 degrees."
"After he spoke the President stepped down from the platform to demonstrate that he could still plow a straight furrow. This was a pleasant surprise to the crowd."
The national polling averages done by Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight did not tell us who would win.
Saying they were accurate because they predicted the point spread is ridiculous.
They didn't predict the ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE.
Saying they were accurate because they predicted the point spread is ridiculous.
They didn't predict the ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE.
Trump won the Electoral College vote by 25 percent.
If he wins the Electoral College vote by 25 percent in 2020, it wipes out the 9 percent "lead" Biden has in the popular-vote poll.
All Trump needs is 9.1 percent to win.
See how it works?
If he wins the Electoral College vote by 25 percent in 2020, it wipes out the 9 percent "lead" Biden has in the popular-vote poll.
All Trump needs is 9.1 percent to win.
See how it works?
Trump's team always goes for the Electoral College vote.
Of the 50 states, 48 award the Electoral College votes to the candidate with the PLURALITY of the popular vote.
That means the candidate who wins more than everybody else, BUT NOT A PURE MAJORITY.
Of the 50 states, 48 award the Electoral College votes to the candidate with the PLURALITY of the popular vote.
That means the candidate who wins more than everybody else, BUT NOT A PURE MAJORITY.
And that's how Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 percent but lost the Electoral College vote by 25 percent.
TRUMP'S PEOPLE KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
The Democratic National Convention ends on August 20, 2020.
TRUMP'S PEOPLE KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
The Democratic National Convention ends on August 20, 2020.
THAT is when the Trump campaign does a Truman and goes pedal to the metal.
Doing so EARLIER is a waste of time, money, and resources.
The Democrats did everything they could to stop the Tulsa rally.
Trump got 14 million views.
Doing so EARLIER is a waste of time, money, and resources.
The Democrats did everything they could to stop the Tulsa rally.
Trump got 14 million views.
The election season already has an incredibly high rate of interest.
Traditionally, the public doesn't pay attention until after Labor Day.
This year, Labor Day is September 7.
Why all the interest, if everyone has already made up their minds?
Traditionally, the public doesn't pay attention until after Labor Day.
This year, Labor Day is September 7.
Why all the interest, if everyone has already made up their minds?
I'll tell you what's happening:
People are agonizing over how to vote.
That wouldn't be the case if Biden were a sure thing.
The enthusiasm gap is VERY stark.
Biden gets no views and no audience members at his rallies.
People are agonizing over how to vote.
That wouldn't be the case if Biden were a sure thing.
The enthusiasm gap is VERY stark.
Biden gets no views and no audience members at his rallies.
Why did the Democrats delete THIS tweet?
I thought shouts of "Racism!" were carrying the day.
Watch @PressSec expose the press as total imbeciles yet again.
Watch @PressSec expose the press as total imbeciles yet again.
NOBODY KNOWS HOW ANYTHING WORKS.
And you think that Trump can't win reelection?
We live in an age of declarative statement.
"TRUMP IS DOOMED!"
"Why?"
"BECAUSE HE IS DOOMED!"
And you think that Trump can't win reelection?
We live in an age of declarative statement.
"TRUMP IS DOOMED!"
"Why?"
"BECAUSE HE IS DOOMED!"
Over a century ago, British troops sang about being drafted and sent to France.
We're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
We're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
We're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
Because we're here
MAKES SENSE, EH?
I don't speak in declaratives that I don't back up with reasoning.
And I research EVERYTHING.
Trump, Parscale, and Kushner are only about 3 billion times smarter than me.
Guess when Trump started his reelection campaign?
I don't speak in declaratives that I don't back up with reasoning.
And I research EVERYTHING.
Trump, Parscale, and Kushner are only about 3 billion times smarter than me.
Guess when Trump started his reelection campaign?
The day after he was elected.
Parscale says he never stopped working.
Other campaign managers work about 300 days.
He's been working about 1500 days nonstop.
Parscale says he never stopped working.
Other campaign managers work about 300 days.
He's been working about 1500 days nonstop.
Why do people think that Trump and his team don't see the polls?
Why do people want Trump to stop being Trump?
Why do people think that a party with Brownshirts will win?
Why people think that Trump supporters won't vote?
None of it makes sense.
Why do people want Trump to stop being Trump?
Why do people think that a party with Brownshirts will win?
Why people think that Trump supporters won't vote?
None of it makes sense.
The Democrat platform is "Elect us for MORE FRENZY AND OPPRESSION."
The Trump platform is "Elect me so we can continue rebuilding."
A final note on previous elections:
IT WAS NEVER A SANE PARTY AGAINST AN INSANE ONE.
The Trump platform is "Elect me so we can continue rebuilding."
A final note on previous elections:
IT WAS NEVER A SANE PARTY AGAINST AN INSANE ONE.
Everything I said above was original thinking.
I didn't read anybody else saying what I was saying.
Right this second, I found someone.
I didn't read anybody else saying what I was saying.
Right this second, I found someone.
He agrees with me, but like ALL public figures, he's afraid, so he hedges his bets.
This is all that matters:
This is all that matters:
"The Democrats have another big problem: The Electoral College. In the last cycle Clinton had a victory margin totaling more than 5 million votes in New York and California. But you only have to win by one vote to get all of a state’s electoral votes."
"The rest make for good poll results but not necessarily an Electoral College victory."
See?
Trump is going for the Electoral College, as he should.
He beat Hillary by 25 percent in the Electoral College.
When I said #TrumpLandslide2020, I always meant the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
And that's why I'm not even slightly worried.
Trump is going for the Electoral College, as he should.
He beat Hillary by 25 percent in the Electoral College.
When I said #TrumpLandslide2020, I always meant the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
And that's why I'm not even slightly worried.
Trump needs only 270 Electoral College votes to win.
He'll get more than that.
A one-point PLURALITY in a state gives him the electoral votes.
Everything else is jibber-jabber.
He'll get more than that.
A one-point PLURALITY in a state gives him the electoral votes.
Everything else is jibber-jabber.
TRUMAN DID ALL HIS CAMPAIGNING FROM MID-AUGUST.
Pollsters have returned to non-probability polling, the mistake than made them mess up 1948 BUT ALSO 1952.
Gallup gave Eisenhower a victory margin of 1 percent, but it was actually 4.2 percent.
Pollsters have returned to non-probability polling, the mistake than made them mess up 1948 BUT ALSO 1952.
Gallup gave Eisenhower a victory margin of 1 percent, but it was actually 4.2 percent.
That's a mistake of 320 percent.
Remember:
NOBODY CAN GUAGE TRUMP'S REAL SUPPORT, AND NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE.
Trump will get 44 percent of the voting public, REGARDLESS.
Remember:
NOBODY CAN GUAGE TRUMP'S REAL SUPPORT, AND NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE.
Trump will get 44 percent of the voting public, REGARDLESS.
If the anecdotal evidence is correct, and every Trump supporter has met at least ONE former leftist now voting for Trump, do the math.
Trust the Trump.
And the Parscale.
And the Kushner.
END
Trust the Trump.
And the Parscale.
And the Kushner.
END
