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1/ Tkachuk was an older player at the 2018 draft (he was the oldest of the 2018 draft) He had an equiv. in the mid-20s. These guys (often drafted in the 1st R) take years to develop and over 50% never make the NHL, they almost never amount to a star.
Brady makes it right away..
Brady makes it right away..
2/ Making the NHL right away when you look like this at the time of the draft almost never happens. It's happened about 10 times in 30 years. It only happens once every few years. Nichushkin (compared with Tkachuk above) is the last one to do it. Kirby Dach is the most recent.
3/ We should have expected Brady to struggle, mightily, especially offensively. He doesn't. He's actually really, really good. He racks up 45 points in 72 games (good for an equivalency of 52). Then, even with Mark Stone gone, he does it again in his D+2. Incredible!
4/ What's so important about the 50 equivalency in his first NHL season? Well typically only really good, superstar-like, Fs do something so notable in their first year.
5/ In 30 years, only 23 other Fs have done this (i.e., NHL right away, 50+ equivalency in their first year in the NHL). 17 of them turned into stars (74%).
6/ Tkachuk is the only one to reach the 50+ equivalency coming from a DY equivalency of less than 30. Factor in Tkachuk's older status and there's nobody that looks even close to him. He's on an island by himself.
7/ The Sens took a big gamble drafting Tkachuk so high, given what was left on the table and where Tkachuk found himself at the time of the draft but it looks like the scouts got this one right. He didn't have the make-up of a star NHLer but is on his way to becoming one now.
P.S. - Currently, the probabilities in the comparison above do not include NHLer equivalencies, only pre-NHL numbers... "what did the player look like before they made the NHL"
P.S.1 - A star in this case is a forward that averages 0.7+ points per game (roughly 60 or more points a year) over the length of their NHL career.
P.S.2 - http://www.HockeyProspecting.com is the source for the Tkachuk/Nichushkin comparison above.
Hockey Prospecting has every F and D drafted in the past 30 years. Compare for yourself!
Hockey Prospecting has every F and D drafted in the past 30 years. Compare for yourself!
P.S.3 - You might be thinking Matthew Tkachuk is also a star. It just runs in the Tkachuk genes. But Matthew had the exact make-up of a star NHLer when he was drafted. Brady didnt.
