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So there are technically eight cases left in the SCOTUS term, and they are biggies. Two trump tax cases, two faithless elector cases, fate of the contraceptive mandates, the robocall law, whether we give half of Oklahoma back to Native tribes, and the ministerial exception. 1/
A lot depends on whether those tax cases and faithless elector cases are consolidated (as were the gay/trans rights cases). It& #39;s possible they won& #39;t be a la Windsor (DOMA unconstitutional) and Hollingsworth (Prop 8 from CA kicked on standing grounds) 2/
Regardless, as of today all of the justices have authored five opinions, except for Ginsburg (6) and Thomas (4). So Ginsburg is likely done, even if faithless electors/Trump tax cases aren& #39;t consolidated. So at least two of the three remaining liberals have opinions out. 3/
An unusual amount rides on who has the robocall registry case, which is probably the least important, practically speaking, of the remaining ones. If it is Thomas, it frees up a liberal Justice to write one of the remaining opinions. 4/
If it is Sotomayor -- along with Ginsburg one of the two liberal justices least likely to defect -- then it could get ugly for liberals on the remaining cases (although the OK case doesn& #39;t have a clear liberal/conservative dynamic to it). 5/
On top of all of that is the question of whether the tax cases or the faithless elector cases were split. If they were, and liberal justices are writing justiciability opinions, then that complicates things significantly. 6/
Of course you have to add on top of this the fact that the Chief Justice has become pretty heterodox in the Age of Trump, especially in cases involving the administration. So, an exciting few days ahead of us. 7/7
