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1. Death! Death! Death!
Focus on COVID deaths, not cases. Why? Cases are more a function of testing than anything else, esp. given the VAST MAJORITY of INFECTIONS, like over 99%, have NO or MINOR symptoms. You only find no- or minor- cases when you test. So: Are more ppl dying?
Focus on COVID deaths, not cases. Why? Cases are more a function of testing than anything else, esp. given the VAST MAJORITY of INFECTIONS, like over 99%, have NO or MINOR symptoms. You only find no- or minor- cases when you test. So: Are more ppl dying?
2. Here& #39;s the graph of CDC& #39;s weekly COVID deaths, courtesy of @FamedCelebrity. Well? Does this look like a spike to you? Or like (psst - not supposed to say this!) the pattern seen EVERY FREAKIN& #39; YEAR in *flu* deaths? Hint: it& #39;s the EXACT SAME PATTERN!!!
3. But, but! The News! The Models! The serious dudes & gals in lab coats!!! Our esteemed leaders!
Bull.
The NUMBERS say: this is over. The NUMBERS say - and those of us fluent in models & data have been saying it since Feb - the panic was a fraud & a farce from the beginning.
Bull.
The NUMBERS say: this is over. The NUMBERS say - and those of us fluent in models & data have been saying it since Feb - the panic was a fraud & a farce from the beginning.
4. Here& #39;s some more from @FamedCelebrity - weekly all-causes deaths from the CDC, for the last few years per 100K pop. (+/- 2 wk reporting lag causes excess drop over last 2 wks).
2020 flu season was slightly worse than 2018, (although nowhere near as bad as 1957-58 or 69-70).
2020 flu season was slightly worse than 2018, (although nowhere near as bad as 1957-58 or 69-70).
5. How can this be? By what sorcery did we know this whole panic was a fraud? It& #39;s called: look at the source material, IGNORE the & #39;news& #39; - and do a little math.
Pro-tip Rule: new, untested, models are nothing more than expressions of the prejudices of the model builder.
Pro-tip Rule: new, untested, models are nothing more than expressions of the prejudices of the model builder.
6. Memento Mori (that& #39;s & #39;remember death& #39;) helps - we all die.
If we& #39;re lucky & get old, one of the most common ways to die is from respiratory infections. Old bodies, almost always weakened by other ailments, fall prey to breathing problems. That& #39;s how my own dad died - at 88.
If we& #39;re lucky & get old, one of the most common ways to die is from respiratory infections. Old bodies, almost always weakened by other ailments, fall prey to breathing problems. That& #39;s how my own dad died - at 88.
7. If you& #39;re blessed enough to make it to 80+, guess what? Some stupid thing is going to kill you sooner rather than later: a fall, an infected cut, a flu, a freakin& #39; COLD - or, maybe, COVID 19. Goes double if you& #39;ve got typical cancers, heart & lung issues of age.
Sad, but true
Sad, but true
8. The other group of people who die is the seriously ill. We all know this: get cancer, or heart or lung trouble, add obesity - and the Grim Reaper has you speed dial.
In the initial reports, we noted high fatality rate among old & sick people; noise-level for everyone else.
In the initial reports, we noted high fatality rate among old & sick people; noise-level for everyone else.
9. & #39;Noise& #39; means you can& #39;t detect a signal - you can& #39;t say what& #39;s going on. When 95%+ of the deaths are of ppl sick, elderly, or both, that means <5% were healthy when they caught the bug - maybe 5K ppl - tragic, for sure! - who just died.
Sad truth: Sometimes, ppl just die.
Sad truth: Sometimes, ppl just die.
10. What the experienced modeler/data analyst wants to know: what was going on with that 5%? Since EVERYBODY ELSE who died was sick, old, or both - what happened to these poor folks? Exhausted med ppl, overworked & overexposed? Ppl w/ other problems? Or just stupid, bad luck?
11. Tragedy is our lot. We all die, often in seemingly pointless or stupid ways.
With that in mind: we looked at the numbers. Sick, old ppl packed into nursing homes have a median life expectancy of about 6 mos. Introduce a nasty respiratory bug & they& #39;ll drop like flies.
With that in mind: we looked at the numbers. Sick, old ppl packed into nursing homes have a median life expectancy of about 6 mos. Introduce a nasty respiratory bug & they& #39;ll drop like flies.
