1. Death! Death! Death!

Focus on COVID deaths, not cases. Why? Cases are more a function of testing than anything else, esp. given the VAST MAJORITY of INFECTIONS, like over 99%, have NO or MINOR symptoms. You only find no- or minor- cases when you test. So: Are more ppl dying?

2. Here's the graph of CDC's weekly COVID deaths, courtesy of @FamedCelebrity. Well? Does this look like a spike to you? Or like (psst - not supposed to say this!) the pattern seen EVERY FREAKIN' YEAR in *flu* deaths? Hint: it's the EXACT SAME PATTERN!!!

3. But, but! The News! The Models! The serious dudes & gals in lab coats!!! Our esteemed leaders!

Bull.

The NUMBERS say: this is over. The NUMBERS say - and those of us fluent in models & data have been saying it since Feb - the panic was a fraud & a farce from the beginning.

4. Here's some more from @FamedCelebrity - weekly all-causes deaths from the CDC, for the last few years per 100K pop. (+/- 2 wk reporting lag causes excess drop over last 2 wks).

2020 flu season was slightly worse than 2018, (although nowhere near as bad as 1957-58 or 69-70).

5. How can this be? By what sorcery did we know this whole panic was a fraud? It's called: look at the source material, IGNORE the 'news' - and do a little math.

Pro-tip Rule: new, untested, models are nothing more than expressions of the prejudices of the model builder.

6. Memento Mori (that's 'remember death') helps - we all die.

If we're lucky & get old, one of the most common ways to die is from respiratory infections. Old bodies, almost always weakened by other ailments, fall prey to breathing problems. That's how my own dad died - at 88.

7. If you're blessed enough to make it to 80+, guess what? Some stupid thing is going to kill you sooner rather than later: a fall, an infected cut, a flu, a freakin' COLD - or, maybe, COVID 19. Goes double if you've got typical cancers, heart & lung issues of age.

Sad, but true

8. The other group of people who die is the seriously ill. We all know this: get cancer, or heart or lung trouble, add obesity - and the Grim Reaper has you speed dial.

In the initial reports, we noted high fatality rate among old & sick people; noise-level for everyone else.

9. 'Noise' means you can't detect a signal - you can't say what's going on. When 95%+ of the deaths are of ppl sick, elderly, or both, that means <5% were healthy when they caught the bug - maybe 5K ppl - tragic, for sure! - who just died.

Sad truth: Sometimes, ppl just die.

10. What the experienced modeler/data analyst wants to know: what was going on with that 5%? Since EVERYBODY ELSE who died was sick, old, or both - what happened to these poor folks? Exhausted med ppl, overworked & overexposed? Ppl w/ other problems? Or just stupid, bad luck?

11. Tragedy is our lot. We all die, often in seemingly pointless or stupid ways.

With that in mind: we looked at the numbers. Sick, old ppl packed into nursing homes have a median life expectancy of about 6 mos. Introduce a nasty respiratory bug & they'll drop like flies.

12. That's between 40 & 60%+ of ALL COVID deaths in the West, where we have nursing homes. (In Wuhan, old ppl live with their sons, & so died in tenements) In the US, 0.4% of ppl are in nursing homes.

Conclusion: Not old or sick? You'd need a microscope to see your risk.