Tuesday's Marginally Compelling newsletter is out!

I start with noting that, if you turn the data at just the right angle, it looks like we're see case surges similar to what we saw in the early parts of this crisis... but that's tricky /1
https://polimath.substack.com/p/what-do-recent-case-surges-mean
Even though the data is more representative of the conditions now, we forget that the chaos of this crisis is still baked into those early numbers. We can't directly compare these two situations, we're still in uncharted territory. /2
And is important to note this because we still don't know what will happen. This isn't a time to panic of shift blame around so much as it is a time to learn how to deal with these surges. /3
I looked at the news that case surges were happening more among the young and, even though that data isn't nationally available, I found it as a clear pattern everywhere I looked (FL, GA, AZ, TX, OKC, MN, and LA County) /4
Lastly, I looked at a childhood favorite, Goofy's Glider. This was the first of the Goofy instructional series of short which hold their own special charm (even if they were born our of a labor dispute with Goofy's original voice actor) /6
Friday's newsletter will include
- an overview of the week's COVID data
- why flexibility in opening & closing is necessary
- why we develop theories around data & when we should trust those theories
- more cartoons

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