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1/n Re-upping post, on two levels:
-Back in 2004 I did Atlantic piece called “Blind Into Baghdad” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/01/blind-into-baghdad/302860/
Its point was that risks, consequences, and blowback of US "victory" in Iraq were not just foreseeable but had been foreseen, in detail, by military planners
-Back in 2004 I did Atlantic piece called “Blind Into Baghdad” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/01/blind-into-baghdad/302860/
Its point was that risks, consequences, and blowback of US "victory" in Iraq were not just foreseeable but had been foreseen, in detail, by military planners
2/n
US Army War College, in particular, had laid out a detailed timeline of what was most likely to go wrong (eg, riots and looting as soon as Hussein was overthrown) and how to anticipate and minimize it. And biggest mistakes to avoid (eg, don't disband the Iraqi army.)
US Army War College, in particular, had laid out a detailed timeline of what was most likely to go wrong (eg, riots and looting as soon as Hussein was overthrown) and how to anticipate and minimize it. And biggest mistakes to avoid (eg, don't disband the Iraqi army.)
3/n
Reading those pre-war assessments of what *not* to do, was eerily and nauseatingly parallel to reading post-war accounts of what US actually did, to disastrous effect.
US debacle in Iraq all the worse because US leaders had been warned...
Reading those pre-war assessments of what *not* to do, was eerily and nauseatingly parallel to reading post-war accounts of what US actually did, to disastrous effect.
US debacle in Iraq all the worse because US leaders had been warned...
4/n
--but Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bremer, et al wouldn't bother to listen or learn. "Stuff happens!" in Rummy's deathless phrase.
--but Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bremer, et al wouldn't bother to listen or learn. "Stuff happens!" in Rummy's deathless phrase.
5/n
The new article I have in the Atlantic is essentially that same story about our current debacle, the pandemic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/
(Thanks to @KBAndersen for noting the parallel.)
The new article I have in the Atlantic is essentially that same story about our current debacle, the pandemic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/
(Thanks to @KBAndersen for noting the parallel.)
6/n
For past 15 years, under GWB and Obama, wide array of US systems were *very well* prepared for crisis we're now dealing with.
Intelligence agencies (for alerts on outbreaks); public-health organizations (to limit this outbreak, as they had limited many others)...
For past 15 years, under GWB and Obama, wide array of US systems were *very well* prepared for crisis we're now dealing with.
Intelligence agencies (for alerts on outbreaks); public-health organizations (to limit this outbreak, as they had limited many others)...
7/n
…. China teams, to continue *long-established* public-health cooperation with CHina, despite other frictions;
military units to help with logistics; hospitals and pharma companies; detailed checklists toward containing the virus before it spread worldwide.
…. China teams, to continue *long-established* public-health cooperation with CHina, despite other frictions;
military units to help with logistics; hospitals and pharma companies; detailed checklists toward containing the virus before it spread worldwide.
8/n
But the whole system had a "single point of failure": it relied on a national government that cared about the public health risk, and was willing to learn and act; under a president willing to say, “This matters, let's do it."
But the whole system had a "single point of failure": it relied on a national government that cared about the public health risk, and was willing to learn and act; under a president willing to say, “This matters, let's do it."
9/n
This president did not.
The details are long, but story can be read in chapters. The deaths we're going through, the ec devastation, the loneliness and suffering, the dislocation on all fronts--it WAS NOT NECESSARY. This was a preventable tragedy. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/
This president did not.
The details are long, but story can be read in chapters. The deaths we're going through, the ec devastation, the loneliness and suffering, the dislocation on all fronts--it WAS NOT NECESSARY. This was a preventable tragedy. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/
10/10
"I like the numbers being where they are"--Trump, in February.
It’s this era’s version of "Stuff happens!" with no end in sight to the toll.
/end
"I like the numbers being where they are"--Trump, in February.
It’s this era’s version of "Stuff happens!" with no end in sight to the toll.
/end
