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Pakistan has a history of blaming India for attacks on its soil (& vice versa). Allegations are often exaggerated. But the fact is, India has not always been a bystander either. New Delhi shares a complicated relationship with the Baloch movement(s). 1/n https://www.dawn.com/news/1566145/we-have-no-doubt-india-was-behind-psx-attack-says-pm-imran-in-na">https://www.dawn.com/news/1566...
I covered this aspect to a limited extent in my book & #39;My Enemy& #39;s Enemy& #39; (OUP, 2017). Here is a short & edited excerpt (p.236-46) published in @htTweets in October 2017. 2/n https://www.hindustantimes.com/books/excerpt-my-enemy-s-enemy-by-avinash-paliwal/story-XeyDV6kM8FOzadeasMPwBN.html">https://www.hindustantimes.com/books/exc...
"Somewhere between Islamabad& #39;s vehement allegations of India& #39;s role in fomenting separatism and violence in Pakistan (esp. via Afghanistan) and New Delhi & Kabul& #39;s stony denials, lies the truth". p.236 3/n
To be clear, the China-angle to India& #39;s alleged support for Baloch rebels is not a post-BRI development. When in 2004, a full-blown insurgency broke-out in Balochistan, Chinese engineers were specifically targeted for variety of local (& geopolitical?) reasons. p.239 4/n
In 2009, Sharm-el-Sheikh, when India agreed to discuss allegations of supporting Baloch rebels: it was not coz Delhi was worried about exposure. To the contrary, it felt Pak& #39;s dossier wld corner Islamabad further. ISI had fudged intel (dossier was never made public) p.242 5/n
Of course, the Kulbhushan Jadhav affair, @janusmyth & @suhasinih& #39;s 2015 reports on BSKS elements supporting Baloch rebels in India; plus Modi& #39;s 2016 Independence Day mention of Balochistan & GB has diluted India& #39;s official stand of non-interference in Pak. dom. affairs. 6/n
If anything R&AW chiefs, at least since December 2014, have nearly always been Pakistan leads (if not, then known for their forward approach). None of this is evidence of India& #39;s involvement in Balochistan (or elsewhere). Such evidence is unlikely to emerge soon (if ever). 7/n
But given the larger geopolitical trends, India& #39;s worsening of relations w/ China & Pak. (incl. now), & its reliance on covert and overt hard power (examples abound) under an aggressive NSA, I will not be surprised if India indeed activated a sleeper cell, or maybe two. 8/n
Finally, if one assumes that Ind does have a role in the PSX attack, then the signalling is critical i.e. the more things heat up at the LAC & LoC, the more India will intensify its covert ops ... knowing full well that retribution is likely. 9/n
The question remains: Can India impose such costs over a long term w/o letting China & Pak. overwhelm its own domestic hotspots? Possible for sure, but I can& #39;t say much about the probability of success.
