Watching Boris Johnson’s major speech in Dudley on an FDR style economic agenda live via @talkRADIO’s Live Stream. Thoughts as I go in this thread.

Boris opens by saying “we cannot continue to simply be prisoners in isolation. We’re preparing now to come out of hibernation.

Boris: “I believe it’s absolutely vital for us to set out the way ahead so everyone of us can think and plan ahead for the future for the short, medium and long term.”

“We need to be able to move with a level of speed and energy not seen for generations.”

My take: It’s a delicate balancing act for Boris & his speechwriters here - trying to reassure the lockdown hawks who are most nervous about economic reactivation by saying we’re coming out of this cautiously & carefully, while also saying rapid, radical economic reform needed.

Boris after acknowledging the loss & self sacrifices many families have experienced in recent months says there will be a time when a major review will need to take place to learn the lessons about what went wrong. But he says it’s also vital to acknowledge what has worked well.

He lauds Oxford University for the pace with which they developed and conducted a large scale trial for the world’s first demonstably life saving treatment for the disease.
I’m in awe of the problem crunching fury with which HMRC & Treasury created the furlough scheme within days

Boris: We knew there would be economic and social costs to the collective act of solidarity of going into a national lockdown to save the lives of the most vulnerable. It’s an act of national solidarity and shared endeavour not seen since the Second World War.

My take: Here we go, he’s about to pivot into pushing for his New Deal. I am not an enthusiast for this approach in either rhetorical or policy terms. There were a lot of issues with FDR’s domestic New Deal legacy, with good arguments his policies lengthened the depression.

Boris says we’re all waiting with our hearts in our mouths for the economic reverberations of the lockdown. He says he wants to recover fully and see off the economic after-shock, we must be bold in tackling problems we’ve tolerated for decades - including the productivity gap.

Boris says we have umpteen world class universities and yet when you look across the country too many degree courses are not delivering value for money. He says we’ve failed to invest enough for decades in further education and apprenticeships. Boris says this must change now.

Boris praises London as the capital of the world lauding its economic vibrancy - “theatre, tech, restaurants” but then contrasts it with towns in the UK where people feel left behind as if “their fates don’t matter”.

My take: He’s saying he’s going to level up, not tear down.

Boris: “This government has a vision to unite & level up this country. We were elected on it. In advancing this plan now, I want to serve notice again that we will not be responding to this crisis by undertaking what people call austerity.”

Translation: On your bike, Osborne.

Boris: “While we will sieve through red tape to get the economy going but we also know there will be challenges. We know in our hearts that the furloughing cannot go on forever. Jobs that many people had in Jan are also not coming back, at least not in that form.”

Boris: “I’m conscious that this sounds like a prodigious amount of government intervention - it sounds like a New Deal. And all I can say is, if that is so, then that is how it is meant to sound and be because that is what the times demand.

My take: This is a strategic mistake.

Boris insists he’s not a communist despite extolling a major role for the state in the economy moving forward. He says he wants a dynamic market economy & address productivity gaps.

My take: Boris may like free enterprise & innovation but he’s still massifying the state.

My take: Very, little said about the tax + borrowing plans to fund this state largesse. While FT centrists will enthuse about very low bond interests rates, this is of course can change quickly. Also stealth taxes are a regular resort of governments. All spending must be paid for

Boris: This Government is determined to use this crisis as a catalyst to finally tackle this country’s great unresolved challenges: to fix the NHS, to build the homes, to solve social care, to tackle the skills crisis, to mend the indefensible gap in opportunity and productivity.