[Thread] Had the pleasure of listening to NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg deliver a Distinguished Speaker Lecture at @GIGA_Institute, expertly hosted and moderated by @AmritaNarlikar. A brief rundown (and thoughts).

https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/event/lecture-by-nato-secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg

He articulated the #NATO2030 goal of taking the alliance global by 2030, & made the case on three grounds: COVID-19, terrorism, and China's rise. Going global, of course, means working with like-minded partners, not actually having a presence in the South China Sea, for example.

In thinking about like-minded partners in the "Asia Pacific" (not Indo-Pacific), he mentioned Japan, Korea, Australia, and NZ. (It seems India is not yet on the horizon, though some have started to make the argument for deeper India-NATO cooperation ). http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1419

Importantly, he reiterated his oft made argument that "China is not an adversary to NATO" and "We are not in a Cold War." (This may sound baffling from an Asian perspective, though it does clearly highlight the importance of geographic proximity & territorial disputes).

This means that while China does not directly threaten Europe, its rise presents challenges over which Europe and America need to coordinate and "stand together." He identified key areas: global supply chains, military tech, and now global health efforts.

And yet he said China "does not share our values," citing HK, Xinjiang, monitoring of citizens, & econ sanctions against Australia over the WHA COVID inquiry. (If the Cold War as was an ideological + security contest, it seems China is mostly an ideological threat today to NATO).

To me this presents a political challenge for NATO govts. China may become a security threat in the future, but how do you convince your citizens & legislators to support policies today that will help plan for that contingency? Especially in a fiscally constrained Europe.

Citizens of Asian countries, being at the frontline of China's rise, are more likely to see a threat. This creates an enabling environment for foreign policy and military coordination. Not so in Europe, which does not face a direct security threat. #NATO2030 will be challenging.

Put simply, why should European voting publics care when China is not a major threat and can be an economic benefit? It will take some long-term thinking and political coalition-building for NATO to advocate for a coherent China strategy given this constraint. /End