Read on Twitter
Today, @mitvim, @FESonline and the Israeli Association for theStudy of European Integration are holding a special policy workshop entitled: "European Responses to an Israeli Annexation of the West Bank: From Statements to Actions?" 1/
German Bundestag member (SPD) @NilsSchmid: As friends of Israel, we in Germany are very concerned about #Israel's #annexation plans. There is no doubt this would be a breach of international law and would damage the viability of a two-state solution. 2/
. @NilsSchmid: Any kind of #annexation - even a small solution, like portions of settlement blocs - would be a violation of international law and would prompt German criticism. We want a negotiated settlement and this can only be reached by a diplomatic effort. 3/
. @NilsSchmid: We are planning on submitting a resolution to parliament to demonstrate our opposition to this process, but this is not the time for threats. 4/
. @NathalieTocci, director of @iaionline: We would like to live in a world in which we could prevent #annexation from happening, but the reality is that there is little capacity that Europe can do to stop this. So the conversation has shifted to possible consequences. 5/
. @NathalieTocci: There are three possible responses, in the economic, political, and legal. Not particularly likely that economic sanctions will be executed in response to #annexation, but will depend on the circumstances of annexation and the realities on the ground. 6/
. @NathalieTocci: Political consequences are less meaningful but perhaps easier to execute. There may be a temptation by EU member states to recognize #Palestine as a state in response to Israeli #annexation but this is by and large inconsequential action. 7/
. @NathalieTocci: A far more consequential political action would be to stop EU financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority. If the enterprise of a two-state solution is no longer the end game, then why would the EU continue to support a defunct institution? 8/
. @NathalieTocci: The final possible response is a legal response. #Annexation would renew European conversations about how to treat products imported from Israel versus those imported from Israeli-controlled territories across the Green Line. 9/
. @NathalieTocci: What will consequences mean "in action" will depend on a number of factors: 1) the kind of annexation and its immediate consequences, 2) politics between EU member states, 3) results of the 2020 US elections, 4) reactions from Middle Eastern states. 10/
. @Meretzparty leader @NitzanHorowitz: We are doing everything we can to raise public awareness about the dangers of annexation. #Annexation will put an end to the two-state solution and Israel's existence as a Jewish and democratic state. 11/
. @NitzanHorowitz: #Annexation will be an economic and security burden upon the State of #Israel. It will hurt the Palestinian Authority and our Palestinian neighbors. 12/
. @NitzanHorowitz: The scope of #annexation has not yet been decided. There is no map for #annexation. There is no plan for its execution. This means that everything can change, and quickly. 13/
. @NitzanHorowitz: Alternate PM and Defense Minister @gantzbe said that combating the #coronavirus and dealing with the economic consequences of the pandemic are a greater priority to #Israel today: not #annexation. So nothing is decided. And we will continue fighting it. 14/
. @NitzanHorowitz: If #Israel acts unilaterally, without dialogue with the Palestinian Authority, it will violate international law and damage Israel's relationship with its neighbors. 15/
. @NilsSchmid: Punishing #Israel is a very delicate matter in #Germany, so don't expect Germany to be an initiator of this conversation and there will be no bilateral action. If anything, it would come in the form of a united European decision. 16/
. @NilsSchmid: We refrain from putting a price tag on a possible Israeli #annexation because we don't want the articulation of the price to determine #Israel's decision-making process. But there would be consequences. 17/
. @MartinKonecny of EuMEP: Sanctions with capital "S" are unlikely to be utilized by the European Union, largely due to internal disagreement within the organization. EU sanctions + Israel don't really hold together in Europe, but this taboo is eroding. 18/
. @MartinKonecny: When it comes to Horizon Europe, #Israel has a privileged status but #annexation could impact the scope of Israel's participation and the nature of negotiations. 19/
. @MartinKonecny: 7 European countries made statement to the Security Council that there would be consequences in their relationship with #Israel following an #annexation decision. For its own interests, it would want to distance itself from behavior it does not condone. 20/
. @MartinKonecny: These steps are passive in nature, but they can have a tangible impact on relations. European Commission differentiation between Israel and Israeli settlements will continue. And the European Court of Justice could rule against existing bilateral agreements. 21/
. @MartinKonecny: Although #annexation has been on the Israeli agenda for some time, the European Union has been slow to develop a set of options in response. While the EU likes to say it plays a preventative role, up until this point it has been passive, reactive. 22/
Muriel Asseburg of @SWPBerlin: What should be expected from #Germany in the event of unilateral Israeli #annexation? This is a serious question for Germany, both a strong supporter of a two-state solution and international multilateralism and a strong support of Israel. 23/
Muriel Asseburg of @SWPBerlin: This is complicated by Germany's memory of the Second World War and its special relationship with Israel. It will therefore refrain from punitive measures in the event of #annexation. But it should weigh in to prevent it from happening. 24/
Muriel Asseburg of @SWPBerlin: The rejection of unilateral annexation is clear. On the other hand, #Germany signals that business with #Israel is staying on schedule. German actions are messaging to Israel that annexation will largely be cost-free. 25/
Muriel Asseburg of @SWPBerlin: It will be very difficult for Germany to assume a strong position as it assumes the presidency of the European Union. EU member states are unified in their opposition to annexation, but disagree about the response. 26/
Muriel Asseburg of @SWPBerlin: #Israel has worked hard to deepen the divisions within the EU in order to ensure that there is a lack of consensus regarding an #annexation response. Therefore, Israel sees the EU as toothless. 27/
Muriel Asseburg of @SWPBerlin: There will still be an impact on EU-Israeli relations and a review of existing agreements with Israel and the PA. If this is no longer about a two-state objective, then what should be the basis of the relationship with the Palestinians. 28/
. @h_lovatt of @ecfr: #Annexation won't trigger a united response, but decisions can be made by various EU institutes and can impact the individual bilateral relations between European states and #Israel. 29/
. @h_lovatt: There could be divestment at a corporate or financial level from cooperation or recognition of Israel's presence over the Green Line. 30/
. @h_lovatt: Policy discourse after formal annexation, as well as public discourse, will also be impacted. The traditional view of #Israel as a liberal, democratic state is changing, and the label "apartheid" will no doubt be used more regularly. 31/
. @h_lovatt: And if the two-state solution is no longer a reality, it is difficult to imagine the EU to accept inequality in the West Bank. This may convince some to one day support a one-state solution. 32/
. @h_lovatt: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict should go forward by direct negotiations. But how do you change the current realities? 33/
. @noa_landau of @haaretzcom: No one in #Israel is expecting a big #annexation announcement this week. The government is hosting a White House delegation and discussing the current state of affairs. Sources say that the Trump admin still wants to understand what Israel wants. 34/
. @noa_landau: There are public differences of opinion between Netanyahu and Gantz, but neither is interested in pushing #annexation forward on July 1. This is more of a starting date for deliberation, not an end date. 35/
. @noa_landau: There are many questions still unresolved, regarding the actual territory for #annexation, the status of Palestinians who fall under Israeli annexation, legal consequences, and how to properly frame it within the Trump plan. 36/
. @noa_landau: While the international community is focusing on a doomsday scenario, it is possible that #Israel only annexes settlement blocs that previous negotiations with the Palestinian Authority already earmarked as a part of #Israel. What then? 37/
. @noa_landau: When the European community wanted to prevent #Israel from taking unilateral action - for example the proposed expulsion of Palestinians from Khan al-Ahmar in 2018 - it did stop Israel. This shouldn't be forgotten. 38/
. @noa_landau: Trump's poor position in US polls is certainly a factor in Netanyahu's considerations - the question is how? It as a closing window that must be taken advantage of, or will Netanyahu air on the side of caution for fear of creating future obstacles with Biden?
39/
39/
. @h_lovatt: Israel has obtained as much as it possibly could from its partnership with the European Union, so aside from EU membership there is little else that could be offered to incentivize Israeli decision makers to drop their #annexation plans. 40/
Asseburg: Europe could offer #Israel a special privileged partnership or EU membership, but these don't have to do with the peace process. Instead, Europe should encourage a return to negotiations once there is different leadership in the White House. 41/
. @MartinKonecny: What to expect in the future? The differentiation policies will be a continued point of divergence between Israel and the European Union, and frustration with Israel's annexation will impact ties with individual members states. 42/
. @MartinKonecny: Hungary has engaged in a systematic sabotage of European positions to major foreign policy issues, not only those relating to Israel. I'm not sure that #Israel wants to continue to associate with Orban and his tactics. 43/
. @MartinKonecny: However, France and Germany are the two most important European countries. While it is easy to point towards secondary actors for disrupting European unity, France and Germany can overcome these disagreements (see Russia), so much of it fall upon them. 44/
. @MayaSionT of @Mitvim: Thank you to all of the speakers. There is a continued gap between the EU's rhetoric and action regarding #Israel and matters surrounding its relationship with the Palestinians and the peace process. 45/
. @MayaSionT: Timing matters. Israel saw an opportunity a few months ago, but with the US election fast approaching then this window may be closing. Perhaps the EU should be using this closing window to advance its own position regarding #annexation. 46/
. @MayaSionT: Germany's ascendancy into the EU presidency also factors in the question of timing for #Israel. 47/
. @MayaSionT: The EU has been more reactive than proactive, and that has played into #Israel's hands. And with limited carrots left, then the only option that appears to remain is walking back from existing agreements or setting aside discussions to expand the partnership. 48/
. @MayaSionT: The only positive note is that the myriad factors that Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently weighing will delay this process further and disrupt the timing and scope of #annexation. 49/
Nimrod Goren of @Mitvim: In recent weeks, the EU and almost all its member states have expressed strong opposition to any Israeli #annexation of the West Bank. 50/
Goren of @Mitvim: From the European perspective, any act of annexation - large or small - is a violation of international law, will damage the prospects of peace, and will negatively impact relations with #Israel. 51/
Goren of @mitvim: The EU isn't advertising the price of annexation on Israeli-European relations at the present moment, and is instead focusing on diplomatic and public efforts to prevent the event from becoming a reality. 52/
Goren of @Mitvim: However, Europe has limited influence on the decision-making processes in #Israel, Israeli public opinion, and the Trump administration's policies. 53/
Goren of @Mitvim: If the EU doesn't want to watch annexation happen from the sidelines, it must present to Israel's leaders and citizens what the real cost of annexation would be on Israeli-European ties. 54/
