Latest ONS deaths data (to w/e 19 June) has been released.

65 fewer deaths than normal were recorded in-week!

Year to date there have been 20% more deaths than 5-year avg.

There are 783 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate this week but this was more than offset by a fall in deaths from other causes.

Numbers are for England & Wales only and are 11-18 days old.

That’s the fifth consecutive week we’ve seen non-COVID deaths below normal levels, but the first time since early March that we’ve seen total deaths below normal levels.

Over the last five weeks, non-COVID deaths have been around 95% of the 5yr average. That’s about the same as they were before the pandemic. So I’m not seeing any evidence supporting the idea that many of those who died during the COVID peak would otherwise have died around now.

The best way to compare 2020 to earlier years is to examine age-standardised death rates.

Comparing death counts can be distorted by age & growth of the population.

The CMI will report on this basis later today. This will include an estimate of total excess deaths year-to-date.