This thread about #COVID19 path of CA is interesting and makes some good points but misses biggest issue that will turn out to be key to national downfall for #COVID19 reopening: signaling.
Thread https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1277797786289766400

Opening of businesses in CA was happening cautiously & stepwise & based on key metrics. It all seemed reasonable and well thought out. Then in just a couple weeks caution was tossed to the side. https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap/ 

Nearly all CA counties went from just essential businesses open to churches, nail salons, restaurants, gyms & bars. Yes, bars!
County health depts were shocked at speed of re-opening & it was often done without notifying county health officers who often heard via press.

Public was sick of shelter in place so county health officers struggled to limit re-openings when governor said "go for it"!
It should be no surprise that public concluded from giant surge in re-opening everything that risk must be much lower.

But it wasn't.
People had mother's and father's day parties and graduation parties with families from all over the state and other states. Older well-informed people went to dinner parties at friends' houses. In my county 4 parties led to 55+ cases.

It was complete breakdown of previous habits. While some transmission is occurring in businesses (e.g. bars) most I've read about is between-household social gatherings. In short, business re-openings caused change in behavior but transmission in businesses was likely small part!

The big Q is how we get the train back on the tracks. I think some clear signaling about high risk activities (e.g. closing bars) & huge public messaging campaign is needed ASAP. Sadly, it may not be enough and we might need more lockdowns.

Sadly this thread is still as appropriate today as it was when I first wrote it and now in many places (including CA): https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1272271134696673281