I wrote at length about this two years ago and it comes from a mistaken belief that what you (globally) do matters to the CCP. It doesn't. They are going to pursue what they see as their self interest. China has tolerated this Hong Kong freedom nonsense long enough 1/n https://twitter.com/waweru/status/1277825700326780930

Your persuasion or reasoning matters little to them because authoritarian control matters vastly more to them. This is why I accept a lot of what Trump does because taking on the fight and willingness to impose costs more important than specific cost imposition. 2/n

By that I mean: yes, TPP is a good thing to do, it is in no way decisive. Not even close. This gives us a decision set with a large range of options that satisfice and while I personally think some are better than others I accept policies within that range (i.e. the fight). 3/n

This is also why the European approach to China is so laughably clueless and why the US is right to do its own approach and not wait for allies. Europe keeps talking and in good faith trying to persuade China when China has no interest in being persuaded. China will act 4/n

Independent of whatever Europe does so that means Europe either accepts Chinese cheating/free riding or they impose costs for non-compliance. This also says why the US is correct to basically move on foreign policy and not bind itself to an alliance where the partner is not 5/n

Ready to accept the facts of who the adversary is or what methods of engagement are. US is imposing policy knowing China will not be persuaded to act differently so imposes costs targeting different outcomes. Working with allies is not good unless you have greed outcomes 6/n

and expectations on methods of engagement. Other allies not there yet. Fine. No need to wait for them or let policy be hamstrung by them. Giving Berlin or London any serious input to US China policy would be a catastrophic mistake when they can't even say concentration camp 7/n

Operate under the premise that Beijing does not care at all about your opinion and it all makes sense. They don't care. They only care if they are thoroughly embarrassed and even now that just means they will yell louder at you. It all makes sense then