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Being in Hong Kong at this very moment feels like living somewhere that just received a âguiltyâ verdict but you have to wait another few hours to know what the sentence is.
Actually, you donât even know what law was broken because it was written over the weekend.
Actually, you donât even know what law was broken because it was written over the weekend.
I wrote this on June 11th, thinking through three different #NationalSecurityLaw scenarios. The law passed three hours ago and we still have no idea whatâs in it. As I write at the end, the scenarios are probably best thought of as sequential stages. https://comparativist.substack.com/p/the-fall-of-hong-kong
âAt what point is it beyond clear that escalating repression and violence on an entire people only backfires? That making hardened enemies of the CCP in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan could not be more contrary to the CCPâs own security interest?â https://www.comparativist.org/2019/10/08/hong-kong-and-xinjiang-are-governance-failures/
âSecessionâ is going to be one of the crimes, though no one knows how it will be defined. Insomuch as Hong Kong nationalism is seen as a national security threat to Beijing, I wrote in 2015 that they were all but ensuring HKers would eventually embrace it. https://www.comparativist.org/2015/02/01/the-coming-storm-of-hong-kong-nationalism/
âSubversionâ will also be one of the crimes, though [again] we donât know how it will be defined. If it follows the Macau #Article23 NSL, it will criminalize the militant protest and resistance with severe penalties.
This, too, was completely avoidable. https://www.comparativist.org/2019/08/28/a-history-of-hong-kongs-contentious-politics-it-was-you-who-taught-us/
This, too, was completely avoidable. https://www.comparativist.org/2019/08/28/a-history-of-hong-kongs-contentious-politics-it-was-you-who-taught-us/
All I see in all of this are high-stakes gambles. I wrote this in October. Protest chants turned to âHong Kongers, revolt!â when the mask ban went into effect, then ârevenge!â less than a month later. https://www.comparativist.org/2019/10/05/the-mask-ban-is-a-high-stakes-gamble/
