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Graphs like the ones below scare me. I can& #39;t see how one can spin this as anything other than a disaster in the making. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interacti...
People often complain that I& #39;m looking at cases instead of some other metric: hospitalizations, deaths, contestants on the Bachelor who test antibody positive, whatever.
"Positive cases are determined by testing."
"You can& #39;t compare April to June."
"Deaths are what matter."
"Positive cases are determined by testing."
"You can& #39;t compare April to June."
"Deaths are what matter."
I look at cases for two primary reasons.
1) They are a leading indicator. Deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks, at which point it& #39;s too late.
2) Cases are the causal drivers of new cases. Cases now are the best predictor of cases in a week.
1) They are a leading indicator. Deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks, at which point it& #39;s too late.
2) Cases are the causal drivers of new cases. Cases now are the best predictor of cases in a week.
It& #39;s true that changes in testing make it difficult to directly compare case numbers between early April and late June.
But that& #39;s not what I& #39;m interested in. I don& #39;t all that much care whether we& #39;re above the peak of the initial spike. What I care about is where we are going.
But that& #39;s not what I& #39;m interested in. I don& #39;t all that much care whether we& #39;re above the peak of the initial spike. What I care about is where we are going.
So what I want to do is compare cases in Florida today with cases in Florida a week ago. Barring extraordinary circumstances, testing doesn& #39;t ramp up exponentially the way that cases have. On the timescale of a week, testing changes are usually a wash.
"What about deaths? Why shouldn& #39;t we care about these at least as much as cases? Deaths are not increasing in Florida."
Not yet, that& #39;s true.
But deaths are a severely lagging indicator or at least three reasons.
Not yet, that& #39;s true.
But deaths are a severely lagging indicator or at least three reasons.
1) It takes 2-3 weeks to progress from infection to death.
2) It often takes a week or more for deaths to be registered.
3) If the leading edge of a spike is driven by younger people, you need one or more rounds of transmission to reach a vulnerable population. But you will.
2) It often takes a week or more for deaths to be registered.
3) If the leading edge of a spike is driven by younger people, you need one or more rounds of transmission to reach a vulnerable population. But you will.
So the trajectory of deaths tells me about how who was infected a month ago was changing, a month ago.
I want to know how who is infected now is changing now, and what that bodes for the future.
I want to know how who is infected now is changing now, and what that bodes for the future.
