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Last night @drsatish_kumar & @niknike80 commented that i might be getting too pessimistic about covid19.
So let's look at some of the positives..from my home, locality, ward, city, state, country & then world.
# my building & the building on left & right don't have any cases.
So let's look at some of the positives..from my home, locality, ward, city, state, country & then world.
# my building & the building on left & right don't have any cases.
# i stay in a complex which has 25-26 buildings & 1000 odd residents (maybe much more) - must have been total 5-7 cases, so hardly 0.7%
# my ward had 1300 odd active cases at peak, now 624 odd. Total 4000+ & some 250-270 might have died (stats not clear). Recoveries - 3000+
# my ward had 1300 odd active cases at peak, now 624 odd. Total 4000+ & some 250-270 might have died (stats not clear). Recoveries - 3000+
# out of 24 wards, mine has the 3rd lowest active cases & the highest recoveries!
Now city wide
# dharavi shows that with govt intent, it can be easily controlled. Less than 10 deaths in last 2-3 weeks & hard 10-15 new cases per day. Not more than 550 active now
Now city wide
# dharavi shows that with govt intent, it can be easily controlled. Less than 10 deaths in last 2-3 weeks & hard 10-15 new cases per day. Not more than 550 active now
# containment areas have dropped from 950-1000 odd to less than 750
# now buildings don't get sealed, only floors
# total ICUs available for Mumbai had crashed to 10, now 100+
# ventilators up from 1 to 32 (available)
# each ward is aggressively asking people to come forward
# now buildings don't get sealed, only floors
# total ICUs available for Mumbai had crashed to 10, now 100+
# ventilators up from 1 to 32 (available)
# each ward is aggressively asking people to come forward
# mobile clinics are being sent to localities like malad & kandivali, where cases are rising
# total new cases in Mumbai have plateaued to < 1400 & deaths < 80-90, daily
# Maharashtra still getting 5000+ but major places like pune, thane & Mumbai account for most
# total new cases in Mumbai have plateaued to < 1400 & deaths < 80-90, daily
# Maharashtra still getting 5000+ but major places like pune, thane & Mumbai account for most
Now country -
# most of labourers who travelled have reached their destination & caused a spike in cases. This should stabilise soon.
# deaths are low in extremely smaller cities
# 20000 new cases & 400 odd deaths is not huge in a country where average deaths/day ~ 25k
# most of labourers who travelled have reached their destination & caused a spike in cases. This should stabilise soon.
# deaths are low in extremely smaller cities
# 20000 new cases & 400 odd deaths is not huge in a country where average deaths/day ~ 25k
Now world -
# Europe, Australia/NZ & most of Asian countries have shown it can be effectively controlled.
# main problem is in Brazil, USA, Mexico & India
# most countries, that are careful, show it peaks & falls off in 2-3 months, not more
# Europe, Australia/NZ & most of Asian countries have shown it can be effectively controlled.
# main problem is in Brazil, USA, Mexico & India
# most countries, that are careful, show it peaks & falls off in 2-3 months, not more
Finally -
Technically covid19 is a 21 day problem.
If all patients & probable patients can be tracked, quarantined & hospitalised, in 21 days, some will die & rest recover.
Bottomline - it could vanish quickly, with or without a vaccine!
# end of rant #
Technically covid19 is a 21 day problem.
If all patients & probable patients can be tracked, quarantined & hospitalised, in 21 days, some will die & rest recover.
Bottomline - it could vanish quickly, with or without a vaccine!
# end of rant #
