Last night @drsatish_kumar & @niknike80 commented that i might be getting too pessimistic about covid19.

So let's look at some of the positives..from my home, locality, ward, city, state, country & then world.

# my building & the building on left & right don't have any cases.

# i stay in a complex which has 25-26 buildings & 1000 odd residents (maybe much more) - must have been total 5-7 cases, so hardly 0.7%

# my ward had 1300 odd active cases at peak, now 624 odd. Total 4000+ & some 250-270 might have died (stats not clear). Recoveries - 3000+

# out of 24 wards, mine has the 3rd lowest active cases & the highest recoveries!

Now city wide

# dharavi shows that with govt intent, it can be easily controlled. Less than 10 deaths in last 2-3 weeks & hard 10-15 new cases per day. Not more than 550 active now

# containment areas have dropped from 950-1000 odd to less than 750

# now buildings don't get sealed, only floors

# total ICUs available for Mumbai had crashed to 10, now 100+

# ventilators up from 1 to 32 (available)

# each ward is aggressively asking people to come forward

# mobile clinics are being sent to localities like malad & kandivali, where cases are rising

# total new cases in Mumbai have plateaued to < 1400 & deaths < 80-90, daily

# Maharashtra still getting 5000+ but major places like pune, thane & Mumbai account for most

Now country -

# most of labourers who travelled have reached their destination & caused a spike in cases. This should stabilise soon.

# deaths are low in extremely smaller cities

# 20000 new cases & 400 odd deaths is not huge in a country where average deaths/day ~ 25k

Now world -

# Europe, Australia/NZ & most of Asian countries have shown it can be effectively controlled.

# main problem is in Brazil, USA, Mexico & India

# most countries, that are careful, show it peaks & falls off in 2-3 months, not more

Finally -

Technically covid19 is a 21 day problem.

If all patients & probable patients can be tracked, quarantined & hospitalised, in 21 days, some will die & rest recover.

Bottomline - it could vanish quickly, with or without a vaccine!

# end of rant #