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Now that we've gone through China soft data (don't forget that this is month over month so we're still behind pre Covid esp employment), let's look at USA Covid data.
Bloomberg hasn't refreshed new stuff so I will look at Covid Tracking data (testing, hospitalization etc). https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1277769701876133889
Bloomberg hasn't refreshed new stuff so I will look at Covid Tracking data (testing, hospitalization etc). https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1277769701876133889
The USA has tested roughly about 10% of its population. JHU has a tracker on tests & positive/test portal u can access. I will do some analysis similar to what they do.
Daily testing in the USA = ~600k level. What we care about also is the hit ratio (as in ratio that is positive
Daily testing in the USA = ~600k level. What we care about also is the hit ratio (as in ratio that is positive
So I took positive/(positive + negative) = ratio of positive over testing daily. Latest hit ratio is 6.4% and that has climbed from the bottom of 3.9% on 12 June 2020.
Meaning, they are testing asymptomatic people to have single-digit hit ratio!
Meaning, they are testing asymptomatic people to have single-digit hit ratio!
Daily change of Covid-19 cases & daily new hospitalization in the USA.
Notice that you don't see a correlation of a spike of hospitalization despite massively higher positive cases because of testing: earliest tests only SYMPTOMATIC & later more widespread.
Notice that you don't see a correlation of a spike of hospitalization despite massively higher positive cases because of testing: earliest tests only SYMPTOMATIC & later more widespread.
Obviously because of the scale issue, u can't see the ratios so what I will do is take a ratio of daily new hospitalization/new Covid & I do a 7-day moving average because it's too messy.
Seems like we're rising in recent week but still very low at <2% vs 12.5% at peak.
Seems like we're rising in recent week but still very low at <2% vs 12.5% at peak.
Next, let's take a look at ICU (intensive care so cases got serious) vs new Covid.
The ratios are below. You can see the following:
Hospitalization is no where near peak & ratio of new ICU/ new Covid = 0.018%
Meaning, cases more mild & treatment at hospitals better!
The ratios are below. You can see the following:
Hospitalization is no where near peak & ratio of new ICU/ new Covid = 0.018%
Meaning, cases more mild & treatment at hospitals better!
Note:
Hospitalization & ICU data incomplete so we're not getting the whole picture.
That said, we can see trends over time. Ventilators/new cases ratio are below & also low. I also caution against using this as data not complete. Have state data & perhaps good to do! CA is next
Hospitalization & ICU data incomplete so we're not getting the whole picture.
That said, we can see trends over time. Ventilators/new cases ratio are below & also low. I also caution against using this as data not complete. Have state data & perhaps good to do! CA is next
Okay, let's look at California, my home state. Below is the daily change of California deaths & cases.
Newest deaths = +44
Newest cases = +5976
The ratio of two has been falling.
Newest deaths = +44
Newest cases = +5976
The ratio of two has been falling.
This is California new daily testings & results. It has tested around 10% of its total population & daily ratio of positive/total tests = 5% so testing all sorts & not just people w/ symptoms.
This is what positive testing/total tests daily looks like & it's falling to about 5%, which is a level the WHO says is good (below good above not so good).
Positive/hospitalization ratio edging up to 3.6% (7-day moving average) but no where near earlier spikes which means that the newly diagnosed people either fight it off or they are detected much earlier & not requiring hospitalization as much.
new ICU/new cases rising but at 0.71% at the latest 7-day moving average so not good news but no where near where it was in March & April.
Treatment in hospital must be getting better as ICU not spiking sharply & we'll see whether deaths will spike as they remain flat.
Treatment in hospital must be getting better as ICU not spiking sharply & we'll see whether deaths will spike as they remain flat.
Here is the chart of daily new deaths & daily new cases:
Deaths are falling on an absolute basis
Deaths are falling on an absolute basis
This is a chart that takes fatality concurrently & one that is current deaths/confirmed of 2 weeks ago & shows the same trends.
The US isn't the only place where fatality is falling. Covid death rate in hospitals (% of total hospitalised coronavirus patient population dying per day) falling sharply in the UK too. Meaning, it must mean that there is better treatment + other factors
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53192532
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53192532
