Few thoughts on the Russian bounty program in Afghanistan.

1/ Theories that this is retaliation for 2018 US airstrike against the Wagner group in Syria seem far fetched. Wagner is a mercenary group (basically dispensable). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/russia-afghanistan-bounties.html

2/ There was no official statement from the Kremlin on the approx. 200 Wagner mercenaries who were killed in that 2018 strike. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.htmlGRU

3/ The unit involved in the bounty program, GRU unit 21955, has a long history of botched assassination attempts (2016 Montenegro coup, 2018 Skripal poisoning) and 2016 US election hack, 2014 Crimea attack, Moldova, etc. It's also part of the Russian military command and control

4/ The Afghan bounty operation is not a one-off retaliation but part of a much broader strategic effort by the Kremlin to reassert Russia in the Middle East while undermining US interests.

5/ Russia's 2015 intervention in Syria on behalf of Assad marked a turning point - Russia is back in the Middle East - and has aggressively taken advantage of chaotic US policy, and US desire to disengage from the region by pulling out military in the region

6/ This is not new. Long established Russian pattern in seeking out and filling power vacuums where the US disengages. And all of the above does not bode well for the future of Europe if the US disengages there as well

7/ Bottom line: expect more such subversive activities from Russia that directly undermine US national security interests wherever the US signals a disengagement.