5 part thread on context of Covid spike:

1. Goal of lockdown wasn’t to stop virus,it was to “flatten the curve”& buy time to improve testing & treatment & to increase hospital capacity

2. Couldn’t lockdown forever & always knew reopening would lead to case increase (cont) 1/5

3. The real issue isn’t the big spike in cases,it’s whether the spike is higher than we expected & whether this subsequently results in a big spike in the death rate

4. So far the growth rate of new cases is up 17% but the daily death rate is down over 60%,BUT.....(cont)2/5

5. There is a 3 to 4 week lag time between infections & death

6. The numbers provide us both insight into what would lead to a death rate surge & guidance on what we should be doing RIGHT NOW to prevent that from happening.(cont)3/5

7. The median age of the current case spike is 35,an age group that is 45% of our population but less than 1% of deaths to date

8.Therefore this spike should not IN & OF ITSELF,result in a subsequent death rate spike,UNLESS....(Cont)4/5

9. The younger people driving the spike end up infecting people over 65 who represent close to 80% of the deaths

10. Therefore in both govt & in our personal lives,we should be laser focused on preventing this surge from crossing over to those 65+ old &/or at higher risk 5/5