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Some things to remember about polling and Election 2020 victory:
1: Polls in 2016 were highly accurate for the nationwide popular vote.
2: President @realDonaldTrump's electoral victory was gained by around 107,000 votes in just the right three states.
Some things to remember about polling and Election 2020 victory:
1: Polls in 2016 were highly accurate for the nationwide popular vote.
2: President @realDonaldTrump's electoral victory was gained by around 107,000 votes in just the right three states.
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This election will likely be the same mechanically: Polls will predict the popular vote well and President Trump will be relying on electoral votes sending him to victory again.
This election will likely be the same mechanically: Polls will predict the popular vote well and President Trump will be relying on electoral votes sending him to victory again.
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The ground game in 2020 is different in 2016. Before, Trump ran against one of the most hated figures in American political history (and failed to gain the popular vote). This time, it's a dementia patient, but one who isn't nearly as hated.
The ground game in 2020 is different in 2016. Before, Trump ran against one of the most hated figures in American political history (and failed to gain the popular vote). This time, it's a dementia patient, but one who isn't nearly as hated.
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President Trump also has several key items that have flipped against him. If he can't either fix the economy before the election or quell the ongoing civil unrest, the weight of the sum of those factors against him would be too much to overcome -- he will lose.
President Trump also has several key items that have flipped against him. If he can't either fix the economy before the election or quell the ongoing civil unrest, the weight of the sum of those factors against him would be too much to overcome -- he will lose.
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The fact that there are two things where fixing either would still result in victory is why I haven't made any symbolic bets on the outcome. In those respects, it's still too early to tell, and I'd like for President Trump to fix those things. I want him to win.
The fact that there are two things where fixing either would still result in victory is why I haven't made any symbolic bets on the outcome. In those respects, it's still too early to tell, and I'd like for President Trump to fix those things. I want him to win.
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The point of this thread isn't to convince you to believe that the polls are going to predict the outcome of the election. The point is to caution you not to reject them outright simply because Trump won in 2016, or whatever other reason you might want to use.
The point of this thread isn't to convince you to believe that the polls are going to predict the outcome of the election. The point is to caution you not to reject them outright simply because Trump won in 2016, or whatever other reason you might want to use.
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Some things we can do:
- Register more Republican voters. We have to have the votes.
- Call the White House and use social media to let President @realDonaldTrump know that we need him to focus on fixing the economy and ending civil unrest.
- Don't imagine an easy win.
Some things we can do:
- Register more Republican voters. We have to have the votes.
- Call the White House and use social media to let President @realDonaldTrump know that we need him to focus on fixing the economy and ending civil unrest.
- Don't imagine an easy win.
Note on 4 above:
The important factors for any presidential election can be found here, and you can score it yourself: https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/
Bear in mind that a significant enough portion of the electorate will put the blame at the top, even you think it belongs further down.
The important factors for any presidential election can be found here, and you can score it yourself: https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/
Bear in mind that a significant enough portion of the electorate will put the blame at the top, even you think it belongs further down.
