Thread: There’s been talk about the abrogation of Article 370 being responsible for the current standoff at the LAC. So in this thread, I am going back to my newsletter's coverage to examine Chinese views and India-China engagement on boundary issues since Aug. 5.

My objective is to shed some light on the debate looking at official statements and reportage. My view based on this is that Beijing had concerns but clearly understand the practical implications of the Art. 370 decision, i.e., it didn't change the ground situation. Here goes:

There were two immediate statements from Beijing. A summary of these and more in my Aug 9 newsletter. China “opposed to India's inclusion of the Chinese territory in the western sector of the China-India boundary into its administrative jurisdiction.” https://mailchi.mp/a04933dabd49/eye-on-chinajk-response-rcep-dragging-5g-warning-beidaihe-meeting-hk-crisis-bank-woes?e=[UNIQID]

The week after came Pakistan and Indian foreign ministers’ visits to Beijing. Here’s what Wang Yi told SM Qureshi. This was also the time that we were hearing of a UNSC discussion. https://mailchi.mp/7d3be6d92e37/eye-on-chinajaishankars-visit-hk-chaos-tech-gains-economy-weakens-ideological-education-us-frictions?e=[UNIQID]

The Chinese readout from S. Jaishankar’s visit is attached in the image below. Clearly, it seemed that Beijing was concerned but understood and wanted to underscore to India that practically on the ground, the decision wouldn’t change things. https://mailchi.mp/7d3be6d92e37/eye-on-chinajaishankars-visit-hk-chaos-tech-gains-economy-weakens-ideological-education-us-frictions?e=[UNIQID]

That was followed by the “India-Pakistan Question” being discussed at the UNSC. This was China raising an issue at Pakistan’s behest, as Wang Yi seemingly had promised. Zhang Jun did mention Aksai Chin, but India-China kept talking thereafter. https://mailchi.mp/ad33fbeefdcc/eye-on-china-kashmir-at-unsc-myanmar-clashes-scs-tensions-hk-strategy-taiwan-arms-sales-trade-talks-twitter-takedown?e=[UNIQID]

Next week was interesting. S Jaishankar was in Moscow; he sounded optimistic on ties with China. Amb. Misri told Chinese journalists in 370’s context that “there was no implication for either the external boundaries of India or the LAC.” https://mailchi.mp/fa2b15e39b6c/eye-on-china-xis-economic-vision-ai-social-credit-pharma-opportunity-beijings-hk-stance-misris-take-trade-war-flip-flops?e=[UNIQID]

In early September, there were frictions everywhere. Pangong Tso, CPEC, delayed visits, and confusion over the informal summit. Imp to note: Pangong Tso had seen scuffles in Aug. 2017 too: https://mailchi.mp/cb6a7a779fc8/eye-on-chinadelhi-beijing-frictions-net-rules-inspections-af-pak-trilateral-merkels-visit-xis-reform-meeting-trade-thaw-with-us?e=[UNIQID]

The 2017 incident at Pangong Tso was described as follows (image attached) by the Indian Express. Foreign Minister Jaishankar called the Aug. 2019 incident a “face-off” that was resolved and not a “skirmish.” https://mailchi.mp/34c43a2aa409/eye-on-china-wuhan-20-indian-wargames-economic-worries-li-in-russia-laws-drone-sales-us-bills-on-hk-tibet?e=[UNIQID]

At the same time, both India and China also talked about progress in setting up the informal summit. Hua Chunying was also rather sanguine about the Pangong Tso incident. https://mailchi.mp/34c43a2aa409/eye-on-china-wuhan-20-indian-wargames-economic-worries-li-in-russia-laws-drone-sales-us-bills-on-hk-tibet?e=[UNIQID]

The next week, Chinese AmB. Sun Weidong gave two interviews, talking about the relationship in positive light. Here’s what I had thought reading his comments. https://mailchi.mp/61dc70c214b2/eye-on-china-rcep-jaishankars-view-prc70-imrans-visit-trumps-invitation-hk-violence?e=[UNIQID]

Heading into the informal summit, the top Pakistan leadership was in Beijing; yet Chinese media ahead of the Mamallapuram summit was fairly positive, although Chinese analysts were circumspect in their views about future cooperation. https://mailchi.mp/a70ba51e56e1/eye-on-china-xi-in-chennai-paks-push-nepal-visit-trade-talks-eu-5g-warning-central-local-tax-reform?e=[UNIQID]

We then had the big informal summit. There was so much written about it, with so many leaks and inside stories. None really mentioned Art. 370 being raised. Here's what the Chinese side said officially. https://mailchi.mp/d6db9f5a9628/eye-on-china-chennai-summit-nepal-visit-trumps-deal-gdp-6-pacific-lease?e=[UNIQID]

As Ladakh became a UT, this is what CN MoFA said: "This is illegal, null and void. It will neither change the fact that the relevant region is under China's actual control nor produce any effect." So Beijing understood that ground realities do not change. https://mailchi.mp/715ca8826559/eye-on-china-4th-plenum-jk-barbs-us-on-tibet-pompeos-challenge-blockchain-cryptography-afghan-talks-hk-protests-brussels-espionage?e=[UNIQID]

In November, India walked out of the RCEP deal, but Modi-Xi met in Brazil for the BRICS meeting. Xi still sounded fairly upbeat about the relationship. https://mailchi.mp/7656acad8c85/eye-on-china-hk-turmoil-brics-meet-auto-boom-bank-jitters-ufwd-hits-india-patriotic-education-dhakas-smart-city-us-commissions-report?e=[UNIQID]

Later in the month, there were a few developments. First Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's visit to Arunachal and Bangkok for an ASEAN dialogue. Also, a report on India's border infra push. https://mailchi.mp/c730ac376a96/eye-on-china-hk-siege-xinjiang-papers-gdp-revision-new-industrial-plan-rajnaths-visits-tibet-frictions-us-deal?e=[UNIQID]

In early December reports informed of MPs in India talking about China; border infrastructure being built by both India and China and the two sides holding the annual Hand-in-Hand military drills. https://mailchi.mp/2c556a9f4b67/eye-on-china-sr-talks-mi-credit-tech-war-cpec-stumbles-sl-balances-power-of-serbia-xinjiang-record-defaults-gdp-target-employment?e=[UNIQID]

As reports emerged of India-Japan and India-Australia holding 2+2 dialogues, here's what Chinese analysts were saying. These are really interesting comments, which seem to suggest more nuance than we commonly assume. https://mailchi.mp/3d3eb5bac8ec/eye-on-china-trade-deal-22-quad-economic-goals-tech-chips-wang-in-myanmar-reshaping-cpec-human-rights-xinjiang-campaign-hk-art-23?e=[UNIQID]

In late December, Beijing was watching the CAA protests closely, but it also sought to raise Kashmir at the UNSC. This didn't quite work out. But curious timing, as Wang Yi was heading to Delhi for SR-level talks and as India-US held a 2+2 dialogue. https://mailchi.mp/06860d137e57/eye-on-china-indo-pacific-wangs-message-tibet-act-trade-deal-xi-in-macau-debt-worries-china-europe-ties-tech-war?e=[UNIQID]

2020 began with the Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. Ranbir Singh visiting China. He also met with Zhao Zongji, who heads China's WTC. At the same time, PLA's Tibet Mil. Command was holding drills. https://mailchi.mp/76d7ca25c578/eye-on-china-taiwan-polls-pak-drills-us-deal-xis-mission-defaults-revenue-wuhan-flu-south-china-sea-lam-luo-meet?e=[UNIQID]

Just before Wuhan went into lockdown, and things changed. Here's my newsletter on January 19. Some really interesting developments to note as outcomes of Lt. Gen. Ranbir Singh's visit.

First, movement on a new India-CN hotline & COAS on rebalancing

https://mailchi.mp/ec598f930004/eye-on-china-hotline-kashmir-growth-birth-rates-myanmar-visit-wang-in-africa-eu-bri-asean-on-china-ccdi-plenary-wuhan-virus?e=[UNIQID]

Another point to note is that China once again sought to raise the Kashmir issue at the UNSC. things did not seem to pan out as Beijing had hoped. But MoFA continued to characterise this as an issue between India and Pakistan. This was also a time that the FATF was soon to meet.

That's when COVID took centerstage and boundary issues began to take a backseat until sometime in April and then May, when first reports appeared. Hope this sheds some light on the debate about motivations and intentions.