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THREAD: Why Jesus is great 
(and why I'm not getting him) 
I've seen a lot of threads about Gabriel Jesus since Aguero's injury and, as this was what first inspired me to create this account, I thought I'd expand on Jesus' league performances when Aguero doesn't start... https://twitter.com/RJstuff/status/1275431971406204929
(and why I'm not getting him) I've seen a lot of threads about Gabriel Jesus since Aguero's injury and, as this was what first inspired me to create this account, I thought I'd expand on Jesus' league performances when Aguero doesn't start... https://twitter.com/RJstuff/status/1275431971406204929
I'm going to call Jesus when Aguero doesn't start "Jesus*". I'll first compare to Aguero using http://understat.com .
In the last 3 seasons Jesus* has 36 appearances (4 as sub), for 2747 minutes total or 76.3 per game.
Aguero has 82 (11) with 5962 mins, or 72.7 per game...
In the last 3 seasons Jesus* has 36 appearances (4 as sub), for 2747 minutes total or 76.3 per game.
Aguero has 82 (11) with 5962 mins, or 72.7 per game...
So even though Pep has other options, it seems Jesus* still gets good game time and even more minutes than Aguero does.
This holds true when limiting to this season, Jesus* having 13 (1) with 1042 mins or 80.2 per game compared to Aguero's 24 (6) with 1462 mins or 60.9 per game.
This holds true when limiting to this season, Jesus* having 13 (1) with 1042 mins or 80.2 per game compared to Aguero's 24 (6) with 1462 mins or 60.9 per game.
Jesus* has scored 21 goals inc. 1 penalty from 3 attempts, from 24.5 xG (or 20 from 22.22 without pens), for 0.58 goals per game or 1 every 131 minutes.
Aguero has 58 inc. 8 penalties from 9 attempts, from 54.08 xG (50 from 47.24 w/o pens), for 0.7 per game or 1 every 103 mins.
Aguero has 58 inc. 8 penalties from 9 attempts, from 54.08 xG (50 from 47.24 w/o pens), for 0.7 per game or 1 every 103 mins.
So even though there are few concerns about playing time, and Jesus* has a decent record, we see Aguero does more with his minutes and also per game.
This season Jesus* scored 8 from 10.18xG for 0.78pg or 1 per 130 mins.
Aguero has 16 from 15.56xG for 0.67pg or 1 per 91.4 mins.
This season Jesus* scored 8 from 10.18xG for 0.78pg or 1 per 130 mins.
Aguero has 16 from 15.56xG for 0.67pg or 1 per 91.4 mins.
Aguero has been hurt by his various injuries this season but is still more efficient with his minutes, in part due to penalty duties that Jesus* is lacking.
I'll also briefly cover assists to get an idea of points potential, but both players rarely turn provider as we'll see...
I'll also briefly cover assists to get an idea of points potential, but both players rarely turn provider as we'll see...
Jesus* has 8 assists (according to @OfficialFPL not understat), 2.66xA, 22 bonus (thanks to @FPLStatus), & 4 yellows (thanks @Transfermarkt) for 189pts & 189.5xPts, or 5.25 per game.
Aguero has 23 assists, 14.68xA, 80 bonus & 10 yellows for 545pts & 502xPts, or 6.65 & 6.12 ppg.
Aguero has 23 assists, 14.68xA, 80 bonus & 10 yellows for 545pts & 502xPts, or 6.65 & 6.12 ppg.
So not only does Aguero benefit from good finishing, he also leads Jesus* in expected points per game, arguably the most important stat for FPL.
This season Jesus* has 2A, 0.72xA, 68pts, 57xPts for 5.23 & 4.38 per game.
Aguero has 6A, 2.92xA, 132pts, 121.6xPts for 5.5 & 5.07pg.
This season Jesus* has 2A, 0.72xA, 68pts, 57xPts for 5.23 & 4.38 per game.
Aguero has 6A, 2.92xA, 132pts, 121.6xPts for 5.5 & 5.07pg.
So a cheaper Aguero Jesus* is not, but how does he compare to his similarly priced fantasy rivals?
I'll analyse a player called "fwd*" who will be the combination of Rashford, Jimenez, Vardy & Kane and a player called "mid*" who will be Martial, Bruno, Mahrez, Son & Richarlison:
I'll analyse a player called "fwd*" who will be the combination of Rashford, Jimenez, Vardy & Kane and a player called "mid*" who will be Martial, Bruno, Mahrez, Son & Richarlison:
Over the last 3 seasons fwd* has 0.5 goals per game, 160 mins per goal, 4.97 points per game and 4.77xPts per game.
Mid* has 0.34 goals pg, 210mpg, 4.77 ppg and 4.34 xPtspg.
Remember Jesus* has 0.58 goals pg, 131mpg, 5.25 points and xPts per game.
Looking good so far...
Mid* has 0.34 goals pg, 210mpg, 4.77 ppg and 4.34 xPtspg.
Remember Jesus* has 0.58 goals pg, 131mpg, 5.25 points and xPts per game.
Looking good so far...
This season fwd* has 0.57 goals pg, 153mpg, 5.59ppg and 5.28 xPtspg.
Mid* has 0.41 goals pg, 195mpg, 5.56ppg and 5.05 xPtspg.
Remember Jesus* has 0.78 goals pg, 130mpg, 5.23ppg and 4.38 xPtspg.
For whatever reason Jesus' numbers look comparatively worse this season...
Mid* has 0.41 goals pg, 195mpg, 5.56ppg and 5.05 xPtspg.
Remember Jesus* has 0.78 goals pg, 130mpg, 5.23ppg and 4.38 xPtspg.
For whatever reason Jesus' numbers look comparatively worse this season...
Obvious guesses for the gains by fwd* and mid* are Rashford/Martial becoming first team regulars and Mahrez/Richarlison moving clubs.
Also we initially picked players who are doing well this season (as they are Jesus*' rivals), so we do suffer from some selection bias.
Also we initially picked players who are doing well this season (as they are Jesus*' rivals), so we do suffer from some selection bias.
Jesus*' poorer numbers and higher price (9.6 vs 9.5 for fwd* and 8.7 for mid*) are why I will be looking to alternatives to finish my season.
From 33+ (not updated with 32+) the kiwi's spreadsheet expects:
Jesus* 24.7
Jimi 27.8
Martial 34
Son 32
Bruno 32.3
Rich 29
Mahrez 28.2
From 33+ (not updated with 32+) the kiwi's spreadsheet expects:
Jesus* 24.7
Jimi 27.8
Martial 34
Son 32
Bruno 32.3
Rich 29
Mahrez 28.2
Therefore I myself will grab some of these midfielders and possibly Jimenez before considering Jesus.
As always, this isn't the be all and end all! There are lots of good threads with different kinds of analysis to help you make your own decision. Good luck!
Kiwi out
As always, this isn't the be all and end all! There are lots of good threads with different kinds of analysis to help you make your own decision. Good luck!
Kiwi out
PS: For xPtspg I've just adjusted for xG, xA & pen misses, without changing things like bonus.
Threads to read:
@FPLBrain deep dives into Jesus' stats: https://twitter.com/FPLBrain/status/1276533914023100416?s=19
@FPL_Swe makes the case for Jesus and Foden:
https://twitter.com/FPL_Swe/status/1275779397711286272?s=19
Let me know about any more!
Threads to read:
@FPLBrain deep dives into Jesus' stats: https://twitter.com/FPLBrain/status/1276533914023100416?s=19
@FPL_Swe makes the case for Jesus and Foden:
https://twitter.com/FPL_Swe/status/1275779397711286272?s=19
Let me know about any more!
