The idea that we will have a coronavirus vaccine within 2 years seems unlikely to me. I think mumps was the fastest and it was identified in 1963 and the first vaccine was licensed in 1967. So 4 years. 1/

There are a lot more companies with a lot more technology working on a coronavirus vaccine, so that is good. But lots of people have been working on vaccines for other viruses - for example HIV or HSV - and still no vaccine. 2/

We still don't understand enough about immunity and coronavirus, so lots of vaccine targets to be tested. Basically, a lot of trial and error. This is a summary of targets from a recent study of a vaccine candidate. 3/ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31208-3/fulltext

What I'm saying is we need to dig in and mask up, wash hands, and still practice physical distancing. Because realistically that is all we have and are going to have for a while. And other countries have proven it works. 4/

And contact tracing. We need to have as big a hard on for public health as we do vaccines. 5/

This is a good op ed on the subject. It's a long read, but it's good. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html 6/

And wow this graph from that op ed 7/

I see a lot of people taking this the wrong way, not sure how many are bots. There are strategies that work. The EU is making plans to open up. New Zealand and Iceland are in great shape. Not one person died in Vietnam. There are things that work. I find that very hopeful. 8/

And you can look at the myriad of vaccine candidates here. I find it hopeful that there are so many. 9/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Lots of people are saying Fauci promised a vaccine by the end of the year. He said “if all the things fall in the right place—that we might have a vaccine that would be deployable by the end of the year, by Nov-Dec" 10/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/05/27/fauci-we-might-have-a-vaccine-by-the-end-of-the-year/#64346ee66043

I would love a vaccine by the end of the year, but I just think we have to be very careful about promises. Walking back what was said is hard (see masks). And again, we have things that work and countries that followed them are opening up. 11/

I didn't say it will be 4 years for a vaccine.
Wear masks. Invest in public health. Invest in universal health care. Invest in dismantling barriers to health care, like racism. And when a vaccine comes it will be a welcome addition. 12/