Okay, we start today w/ US Covid-19 latest confirmed, deaths, ratios (deaths/confirmed & deaths/confirmed a week ago) & growth of deaths & confirmed.

Latest Covid-19 7-day daily average increase of cases & 7-day daily average increase of deaths

I show them separately so that you can see the trends without a scale issue & it's clear that deaths have risen in recent days. Now this is how they look on a relative basis.

Scale for confirmed is 10k & scale for deaths is 1k (10:1).

If you lag confirmed by 1 week, it looks like this.

This is two weeks lag of confirmed (two weeks ago) & Covid-deaths (current)

Someone mentioned New Jersey legacy deaths. Let me show that 1854 in a chart so I will strip that out & do the analysis again as it was in the past & just part of data revision.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-philadelphia-pa-new-jersey-death-toll-probable-green-20200625.html

Stripping out the New Jersey adding 1854 (bloomberg data shows only 1796 so I actually just substracted only 1796 on 25 June when New Jersey added old data to that date.

It shows deaths are down.

Fatality ratios for USA Covid:

Cumulative fatality = total deaths (including NJ revision)/ total confirmed down to 4.9% from 5.1%.

Concurrent daily fatality = down 1.5% from 1.7%

Current daily/last week confirmed =1.8% from 2.4%
Current daily/2 weeks ago =2.3% from 2.7%

This is the growth rates of deaths & Covid-19 in the US. Trending downward.

Conclusion:

a) Deaths are down on an absolute basis & relative (even if we include lags of 1 week & 2 week).

b) Deaths are down also on a trend basis as % growth is contracting.

This is good news in terms of both costs of lives & fatality of disease.

Let's look at states: FL!

This is Florida & I use scale of 1k for confirmed & 100 for deaths. As Florida fatality is much less than the US, u can see that u can't see deaths clearly even if we use a 10:1 ratio.

So I am changing this ratio to 1k & 10s so that's a 100:1 scale just to reflect that fatality rates in Florida are much lower. I do this so u can see trends of deaths clearer & it's clearly trending side-way despite massive increase of Covid!

Let me show you this:

Florida new 7-day average daily deaths/ new 7-day average daily confirmed fatality = 0.6% down from 0.8%

If you take the number of confirmed from 2 weeks ago, it would still shows 1.6% vs 19% previously so it's falling.

U can see trends here.

Forgot to show you % growth of Covid cases & deaths. You can see they are trending in opposite directions.

Let's do Arizona & Texas!

Here are Texas daily increases of Covid & deaths> I use 100:1 because Texas fatality is low relative to the USA & other states.

Cases sky-rocking & deaths side-way.

Texas fatality:

Cumulative is 1.6% & trend is downward.
New daily 7-day average deaths/ new daily 7-day Covid positive = 0.6% fatality & trend has been the same for 1 week.

Current deaths/ confirmed 2 wks ago = 1.2% from 1.4%

In short, trend is downward for fatality & deaths

This is the % daily change (7-day moving average) of Texas Covid & deaths.

No update yet for weekly excess deaths but so far this is what the CDC shows:

* 1st 2 weeks of June show no excess deaths so that means the decline of deaths in the US is not due to reporting errors (states hiding etc).
* Trends of deaths falling on absolutely & relative = good!