Should Dean Smith be sacked as Aston Villa manager? #AVFC

This thread will detail the arguments for and against sacking our manager after our most recent loss at home to Wolves fired up the debate more than ever.

With Villa currently sat 19th in the Premier League, relegation looms just a year on from our promotion back to England's top flight. Smith joined Villa in October 2018 with Villa 14th in the Championship, guiding us to promotion the same season with 61 points in 34 games.

Since our promotion, however, things have been less than impressive. With just 27 points from 32 Premier League games, Dean Smith has failed to implement a successful system at any point, as Villa are now 9 games and 5 months winless as performances get even weaker.

Dean Smith Aston Villa Record:

Games - 78
Wins - 32 (41%)
Draws - 17 (22%)
Losses - 29 (37%)
Goals per Game - 1.63
Goals Against per Game - 1.51

The first issue Smith has had this season is his failure to build a reliable defence. Having tried 15 combinations of defence and goalkeeper in the league this season, more than any other side, Villa have conceded 60 goals (64.21 expected) - the most of any team.

Villa's lack of defensive solidity is in part down to individual errors which Smith cannot be blamed for but the lack of consistency in the back 4, defensive organisation, and protection from the midfield outside the failed back 5 experiment have contributed to a terrible record.

In attack, Villa have been slightly better. After 10 games of this season Villa boasted the 5th highest xG in the league, although our attacking inspiration has dwindled as the season had gone on and Villa's dangerous attack has become much less of an asset.

Between Smith's arrival at Villa and the end of our promotion season Villa were the 3rd best side in the league as our record setting 10 game winning streak as Smith's 4-3-3 (his most used system at Villa) truly came together, bringing Villa to the Premier League.

It must be said, however, the importance of Jack Grealish in last season's promotion. In the Championship with Villa, Smith won just 2 games from 14 without Grealish as it was our captain's return from injury that kickstarted our winning streak and journey to the Premier League.

This season, even with Grealish, Villa have not been up to scratch. Since the restart, however, Villa have been better. while performances may not have been as thrilling, Villa have been MUCH better defensively, and our new found ability to defend has made a big difference.

Villa have climbed from 19th to 17th since the restart and despite the fact that we have played the most games, having won the most xPoints of any side is impressive.

Villa last 4 xResults:

1.01-0.24 vs Sheff U
1.57-1.14 vs Chelsea
1.23-0.66 vs Newcastle
0.40-0.73 vs Wolves

In fact, Villa have been unlucky to take just 2 points from these games and are unlucky to still be in the relegation zone. Before using this as ammo to hate on the metric, consider how few chances teams have missed against us and how few of ours we've scored.

Before the restart, set pieces were a massive issue and with 19 set piece goals conceded Villa are the worst team in the league at defending set pieces. In our last 4 games, but for Norwood's ghost goal we have been undeniably better at both ends from dead ball situations.

The fact that Villa are improving in key areas of weakness and are now performing better than West Ham and Bournemouth, our two main promotion rivals, in spite of Grealish's poor form which would typically render us entirely useless. With just 6 games to go, we are getting there.

With so little of the season remaining, arguments on both sides are created. Should Smith be sacked, the 'new manager bounce' could give us a shock win in one of our tougher remaining games, which would dramatically improve our survival chances going into the final day.

A new manager, however, may take time to get his system in place - time we do not have. Furthermore, our recent improvements would now make us favourites on the final day meaning it could take just one result, perhaps at home to Palace, to get us into a position to stay up.

If Smith were to go, the task of replacing our manager would be one with a very limited time frame and one that would be of critical importance to the team. Villa could easily get worse under a new manager - sacking Smith certainly does not guarantee a better replacement.

So, Villans. If you were in the Villa board's position, would you sack Dean Smith or keep him on until the end of the season or longer?

I hope this thread helped pose the arguments on both sides, let me know in the replies what I missed! #AVFC

xG via @UnderstatXG