so on my day off yesterday, the head of LA County's public health department put out this ominous statement about how bad things are getting with covid, basically saying that we're approaching a worst-case scenario. I'm going to try to explain what's happening in LA

there's been a recent large spike in the number of people testing positive for covid on a daily basis in LA County. over the past 7 days, an average of 1,979 people tested positive each day, compared to 1,379 two weeks ago https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/los-angeles-county/

the rise in case numbers is only partially due to increased testing. in late May, only about 6% of people being tested for covid in LA County were coming back positive, compared to 12% last week (the rising blue line is what we're looking at here)

there's a possibility that the increased case numbers won't result in equally huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, because the people getting sick are beginning to skew younger. LA County officials have said that people under 40 are driving the recent case growth

more concerning is the rise in people hospitalized/ in the ICU with covid. there are currently 1,676 people hospitalized with covid, compared to around 1,400 a few weeks ago. you can see the steep rise on the far right

it's possible that some of the increase is due to hospitals now testing all patients coming into the hospital -- no matter the reason -- for covid. so they're also counting people hospitalized for elective surgeries or unrelated emergencies as hospitalized covid patients

but LA County officials have said that within that, there's also been a spike in patients needing treatment for covid specifically. and you can see that the number of patients in the ICU with covid is up a little recently too

what happens next is confusing. the state has put LA County on watch because its hospitalization numbers aren't supposed to increase by more than 10% every 3 days. hospitalizations in LA County have been rising since June 17. on Thursday, they crossed that 10% threshold

LA County officials, however, promised they would meet even stricter criteria to continue with reopening. LA County calls for absolutely no increase in hospitalizations. according to the county's own website, it is not meeting that standard http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/covid19_recovery_dashboard.htm

I'm really not sure how this will play out or who will make a decision about slowing reopening. for context though, 19 of California's 58 counties are seeing hospitalization increases of more than 10%, so LA is definitely not alone in having some major problems to deal with

the latest stats from LA County, with a further increase in hospitalizations https://twitter.com/lapublichealth/status/1276997107556028416?s=20

in an interview with the New York Times yesterday, LA Mayor Garcetti said he would wait 3-5 days to determine if the reopening of the economy should be reversed. “We’re not in the red zone but we’re in the yellow zone." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/coronavirus-florida-texas-bars-closing.html