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I'm not an epidemiologist. But, we've got kids that are supposed to go back to school in the fall. This is what we're seeing, and it's pretty freaking bleak: a thread. 1/n
First, some countries have tried to send kids back to school. In some case, it didn't go well. Israel and China have been forced to close schools down again due to COVID-19. 2/n https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-06-24/israels-schools-struggle-with-reopening-amid-coronavirus-pandemic
China has closed its schools again after outbreaks caused by schools. 3/n https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/Beijing-coronavirus-flareup.html
However, some Northern European countries have managed to reopen schools without causing a resurgence. However, the US doesn't behave like Northern Europe, either socially or via policy. 4/n https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening/reopening-schools-in-denmark-did-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7
The US resembles Israel far more than it does Denmark, both having crowded classrooms and a population with strongly conservative religious beliefs. Thus, I think an outcome like the former to be more probable. 5/n
We know that communities of color are being hit the hardest by COVID-19, and are the least likely to be in a position to keep their kids at home. The result being the children most likely to be exposed via their parents are the most likely to be in school. 6/n
We are starting to see businesses and other employers starting to lean into employees with kids to send them back to school, threatening to revoke telework privileges if their kids are staying home. So, that's not good either. 7/n
Then there's the mask discipline thing: a shocking number of adults can't figure out how to wear a mask properly (i.e. covering both the nose and mouth). And we expect 7-10 year-olds to do better? Ours lost 3 jackets at school last year. 8/n
Surprisingly, most (~80%) parents seem to want to send their kids back in our district based on informal polling on social media. Teachers, however, are ****ing terrified. 9/n
The average age of a teacher in our district is much higher than the population at large. They don't want to go back and be exposed, but the Union isn't willing to fight it out, and the school board is happy to frame this as parents vs. teachers, and move ahead with plans. 10/n
Arizona is supposed to start school again in early August. They're in the middle of a horrific spike. We'll probably know more about what effect Trump's rally had relatively soon. 11/n
Will sending kids and teens back to school cause a significant spike? Maybe. But we've already shown that the US has been over-aggressive in reopening in the name of saving the economy, with a resulting spike in new cases. 12/n
Similarly, there is strong internal and external pressure to send kids back, without actually knowing either the likelihood, nor the severity in the risk matrix. Back on Feb 26th I called out lack of child care as a risk creator. It still is. 13/n
But, let's be honest. This is the US. What in this entire chain of events in the past 4 months suggests we will judge risks correctly, nor deal with them adequately? What in our recent national history suggests this is a risk we're handling properly? 14/n
Or, given our recent decision making as a country, and given 2020 as a whole, it seems to be a non-trivial possibility that we'll be dealing with outbreaks at schools around the US just in time for the November election? 15/n
Given how the GOP has handled voting in Kentucky and Wisconsin, I don't want to spend too long pondering what fresh new hells they will subject the people of their states to. 16/n
We will be opting to do 100% distance learning this year. Until there's a vaccine, it's the only sane thing to do if you can.
Unfortunately, most Americans don't have this option, and there is the potential for things to get even uglier. 17/n
Unfortunately, most Americans don't have this option, and there is the potential for things to get even uglier. 17/n
