Here's why the Pakistani government's COVID-19 response has been horrific.

a THREAD.

I'll first talk about how Pakistan's COVID-19 response's been running by the Trump playbook.

I'll then talk about best practices from countries who did it right — I'll specifically address the economy here.

Finally, I'll talk about actions Pakistan can still take.

Here's how Pakistan responded:

1) started by eroding public trust in govt-issued COVID-19 statistics through overreporting of numbers

2) had the federal govt defer action to the provinces under the guise of the 18th Amendment — which was lazy.

Compare this to the US, where patchworks of state governments acted in the face of federal inaction and denial.

3) had an erratic, piecemeal border shutdown and mandatory quarantine policy.

Compare this to the US, which shut its borders to the EU over a month too late; NYC's cases spiked due to European transmission, not Chinese transmission

4) did not provide economic relief to citizens, except thru a badly mismanaged system — the Ehsaas program

Compare this to the US providing grossly insufficient economic relief to citizens via the CARES Act

5) had the federal government send mixed signaling vis-á-vis the risk posed by COVID-19 — a direct parallel to the US federal government

6) had the judiciary issue statements of pandemic denial — the Supreme Court explicitly engaged in pandemic denial

Compare this to the US Supreme Court refusing to defer Wisconsin's primary election on COVID-19 grounds

Let's now talk about GOOD COVID-19 responses.

I'll primarily focus this on Vietnam, a country with an economy similar to the Pakistani economy.

Here's what Vietnam did:

1) swift, uncompromising border closures, including with its neighbor to the north, China

2) one of the most aggressive contact tracing operations undertaken by any country on Earth

3) efficient and sweeping isolation of affected communities. Quarantining was conducted in hospitals, and where hospitals ran out of capacity, quarantined patients were moved to military installations. Where they too ran out of capacity, hotels were used for quarantine

4) food security measures(!), including, but not limited to "rice ATMs" for contactless rice rationing

5) utilizing the state propaganda apparatus to get the Vietnamese people to perceive COVID-19 as a national security threat. A strong culture of shaming for "hiding" suspected COVID-19 patients also followed

Germany — despite a robust healthcare system — did well to alleviate pressures on hospitals by getting COVID-19 patients to isolate at home, with an important catch

Germany ended up having doctors do in-house visits 24/7 to monitor patient vitals at home, and if vitals started to deteriorate, patients would swiftly be moved to hospitals.

This was meant more to save lives of COVID-19 patients than to reduce transmission — and it worked; Germany had one of the lowest COVID-19 fatality rates out there.

Let's talk about what stops people from staying at home during a pandemic.

Is it an urge to socialize? Wanderlust? Boredom?

No — most people stepping out during a pandemic do so for their paycheck.

And they step out for their paycheck because they need food for dinner.

If food insecurity isn't an issue, would it not be significantly easier to ensure people stay at home for a 2-4 week lockdown?

And would it consequently not make sense for a govt — esp in a country with severe food insecurity issues — to address food insecurity here?

And did we not see above how this worked well for Vietnam?

Pakistan is not food-sufficient, sure, but a halt on food exports coupled with aggressive state redistribution of food supplies can help overcome the concern the govt claims to have for the starving mazdoor.

The stock exchange rising or tumbling isn't the concern of the mazdoor in Faisalabad, and nor is it the concern of the jeep driver in Skardu who needs tourists from the Indus plains to survive.

They'll probably sit home if they know they won't quite literally starve to death.

Food distribution to the needy isn't a foreign concept in Pakistan; langars are more common in Pakistan than the upper-class elite of Islamabad — including, apparently, the Prime Minister — realizes.

Expand this.

Utilize the military for food distribution logistics — they'll be able to do it far more efficiently than a patchwork of nonprofits.

Stop with "smart lockdowns". Locking down neighborhoods without any semblance of contact tracing is political theater, not a response to a pandemic.

Ensure food security and lock the country down.

Most importantly, however, admit your failures and work from them. Denial won't fix anything.

Oh, and also? Quit using Narendra Modi as your case against lockdowns. Modi's horrifically incompetent. Look to better examples.