How many ways are there to say it's another daily high for new #covid19 cases in #florida? But let's talk about what that means...

So nearly 9000 new cases today, and the 7-day average is around 5000. Is that bad? It's bad that it's going up, sure. The rate seems to be doubling roughly every 8-9 days. But ...

What does that mean for you and me? A quick rule of thumb: the number of people who are currently sick is about 10x the number of newly sick. So you could guestimate about 50,000 to 90,000 floridians. Except ...

Not everyone who is sick is tested. So you need to figure out how many more are out there. Maybe 10x the reported? OK, so our rule of thumb is now 100x daily new cases! ... https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

So, that gives Florida 500,000 people who are currently ill, even if many of them are asymptomatic, presymptomatic, or slightly ill. There are 21.5 million folks in FL, so that's roughly 1 in 50. ...

I went to Publix today, and counted mask wearers vs non-wearers. I passed about 40 people not wearing masks. What are the odds that none of them had Covid-19? ...

About 45%. It's more likely than not that at least one of them is currently sick. Now, there's some bias in the sample since people who are really sick aren't likely to go, but probably not that much. Call it 50:50. ...

But the rate of new infections is doubling roughly every week. So what about when it doubles? Now it's 1 in 25 who are ill. Then the odds are 80% I'll encounter at least one sick person. ...

A week ago, when I went shopping, the odds were against me running into a sick person at Publix. Today, it's even odds. Next week, it's almost certain. ...

Of course, there's huge uncertainty in the numbers. But with things doubling so quickly, a couple of weeks pretty much makes the uncertainty moot. If what I've written isn't true today, it will be in a few weeks. ...

Sometime, soon, maybe now, maybe last week, you will definitely cross paths with sick people. And after that, more and more of them. That's what the numbers mean to me at least. (end)