New and troubling evidence of Russian covert participation in the war in Afghanistan. A few quick reactions based on some of the recent work on covert action: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/russia-afghanistan-bounties.html?referringSource=articleShare">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/2...

This could well be an effort by Russia to influence outcomes in Afg without things getting out of hand. Trump team, in turn, may have kept it under wraps to limit calls from US public for escalation (per @carsonaust), or simply because of Trump& #39;s unusual affinities for Putin.

According to the @nytimes there is “uncertainty about how high in the Russian government the covert operation was authorized and what its aim may be.” This may help Putin gauge US reactions and shift blame to subordinates if things start to escalate. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2020.1734570?casa_token=c7g35GWMsQwAAAAA%3A6-4Y5n8bPt--rpepbwv-_VjnZvuCmyDOt69a3eA1PQq64Scpu7_Sbk9qjpjr082zod4KE7EC7NHj">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...

There is also apparently uncertainty over Russia’s motives, e.g. NATO actions in Syria, preventing the U.S. from leaving Afghanistan, etc. While covert action can signal resolve in some cases, efforts to achieve deniability can complicate this process. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2017.1243921?casa_token=ZUHWBhlOxiQAAAAA%3AI0FLjHu6NsRYhxuDIilPvQsOveu-Dc9nhP3FT0b1PlLWn1X-YbMAQLt9lE_DR_4e4MjaMOa16_A3">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...

This episode will be interesting to follow, but it& #39;s important to be cautious about inferring too much about Russia’s intentions without more info on authorization and motives.