Thread by @CLINICALFPL, {{THREAD}}'If Martial and Rashford were they would have been topscorers in the [...]

{{THREAD}}

'If Martial and Rashford were they would have been topscorers in the premier league'.

In this thread i will look at different stats amongst the top 9 goalscorers in the PL (14+ goals)

At first, lets take a look at the current standings at the top
1. Vardy 19
2. Salah 17
3. Aubameyang 17
4. Aguero 16
5. Ings 16
6. Mane 15
7. Jimenez 15
8. Rashford 14
9. Martial 14

How many games did these players need to get their amount of goals? below you'll the amount of games played. Top is most games played, bottom the least. between brackets = amount of games started from the bench

1. Jimenez 31(1)
2. Ings 31(6)
3. Aubameyang 29(0)
4. Vardy 28(1)

5. Mane 28(2)
6. Salah 27(0)
7. Martial 25(1)
8. Rashford 24(0)
9. Aguero 24(6)

As you see the standings change quite a lot, while Jimenez is 7th on the topscorers list, he's played the most games out of all of them. Aguero is 4th on the goals standings but 9th for games played

Games played doesn't exactly mean minutes played. For example: Ings starts most games but gets subbed off a lot aswell, while Rashford only started 24 but plays 80+ minutes in nearly all those 24 games. Lets take a look at the goals/minutes rankings

1. Aguero 91
2. Vardy 127
3. Ings 136
4. Salah 137
5. Martial 146
6. Rashford 147
7. Mane 150
8. Aubameyang 151
9. Jimenez 176

And again, Aguero comes out on top on this one.

A big talking point when discussing topscorers are penaltys. people often find it unfair comparing the amount of goals while some players take penaltys and other don't. so i thought i would be interesting to see the rankings if we only counted non-penalty goals

* if goals scored aqre equal, the rankings are decided by total games played, as a starte or as a sub
1. Aubameyang 16
2. Ings 16
3. Mane 15
4. Vardy 15
5. Martial 14
6. Aguero 14
7. Salah 14
8. Jimenez 12
9. Rashford 9

Here are some interesting changes again.

Rashford drops to the bottom because 5 of his 14 goals are pens, same with Salah (3 pen goals). Meanwhile Ings, Martial, Aubameyang and Mane see their positions rising because they don't take pens (Auba only has 1 pen goal out of 17)

one of the last stats we're going to look at are goals per game stat. (goals scored/games played = goals per game) these results will look quite similar to the minute per goal rankings, but these are needed to calculate the goals at the end

1. Vardy 0.68
2. Aguero 0.67
3. Salah 0.63
4. Aubameyang 0.59
5. Rashford 0.58
6. Martial 0.56
7. Mane 0.54
8. Ings 0.51
9. Jimenez 0.48

Due to the fact that pens count into this, Salah, Auba, Vardy, Aguero and Rashford are in the top 5

To make the goals per game 'fair' i took a look a the non-penalty goals per game ratio to see what differences it would make. Between brackets will be the normal goals per game ratio and here is where we'll see some big changes

1. Martial!! 0.56 (0.56)
2. Aubameyang 0.55 (0.59)
3. Mane 0.54 (0.54)
4. Vardy 0.54 (0.68)
5. Aguero 0.53 (0.67)
6. Salah 0.52 (0.63)
7. Ings 0.51 (0.51)
8. Jimenez 0.39 (0.48)
9. Rashford 0.38 (0.58)

Martial takes the lead in this one, while his teammate Rashford falls down to last place, just behind Jimenez. As expected the non-penalty takers (Martial + Mane especially) are higher up the list.

and last, the question remains: who would be on top if everyone played the same amount of games. For this i'll use the goals per game and the non-penalty goals per game ratios and multiply them by 31, because there are 31 games played for everyone if they were fit for all 31

i know this isn't completely fair because there are 7 games left and some players have easier fixtures left then others, but these are the rankings you were waiting for. Lets see if Martial/Rashford would actually come out on top

goals per 31 games played for everyone: between brackets = rounded numbers

1. Vardy 21.08 (21)
2. Aguero 20.77 (21)
3. Salah 19.53 (20)
4. Aubameyang 18.29 (18)
5. Rashford 17.98 (18)
6. Martial 17.36 (17)
7. Mane 16.74 (17)
8. Ings (16)
9. Jimenez (15)

*ings and jimenez just have their number of goals scored because they have played in 31 games, all the other have played in less than 31.*

As expected the players who have played less games (Aguero/Rashy/Tony) see their position rising, but still a few goals off the the top

now lets take a look to the rankings if we multiply the non-penalty goals per game ratio with 31 (in the imaginary situation that all 9 players played in 31 games without counting the penalty goals

1. Martial!! 17.36 (17)
2. Aubameyang 17.05 (17)
3. Mane 16.74 (17)
4. Vardy 16.74 (17)
5. Aguero 16.43 (16)
6. Salah 16.12 (16)
7. Ings (16)
8. Jimenez (12)
9. Rashford 11.78 (12)

Using these imaginary systems the top3 on goals scored after 31 played games with penaltys included is:
1. Vardy 21.08 (21)
2. Aguero 20.77 (21)
3. Salah 19.53 (20)

without penaltys included:
1. Martial 17.36 (17)
2. Aubameyang 17.05 (17)
3. Mane 16.74 (17)

If everyone played the same amount of minutes Vardy would still be on top, but everyone else in the top 9 bar Ings/Jimi would have been closer

top 3 goals gained if played 31 games ( goals per game ratio * 31 - current goals)
1. Aguero +5
2. Rashford +4
3. Auba/Salah/Martial +3

If everyone played the same amount of games and pens wouldn't count Martial comes out 1st on 17, with 3 others also on 17 and 3 on 16

biggest losers here ( non-pen goals per game ratio * 31 - current non-pen goals scored) are Vardy and Rashford

both would have ended on 2 less goals than they have now with pens included.

Martial still a big gain here with +3

Answer to the question why i started this thread. Would Martial/Rashford be on top in the goalscorer charts if they played all 31 games?

with pens included the answer is no. Rashford would be in 5th and Martial in 6th position. Although Martial and Rashford have missed 7 and 6 games repectively they aren't the only players who have missed games through injury/suspension

for example Aguero started 24 (same as rashy and 1 less than tony) but also has 6 appearances off the bench while rash has 0 and tony only 1. Aguero has missed even more minutes than the United duo.

below you'll see the players and their games missed
vardy 3
Auba 2
Salah 4
Ings 0
Jimenez 0
Mane 3
Aguero 7
Martial 6
Rashford 7

although Rashford/Martial missed the most games they only missed 3 more games v everyone else on average

in those 3 'more' missed games they are 3-5 goals behind on the topscorers and given their goals per game ratio is 0.58 for Rashford and 0.56 for Martial i'd say it's very unlikely that Martial/Rashford would have been in the top 3 if everyone played the same amount of games

if you discount all penaltys scored it creates a huge difference between Rashford and Martial (9v14) meaning Rashford would be 4-6 goals behind other top players in 3 less games on average, however Martial only 1-2 in 3 less games.

with Martials non-penaltys goal to game ratio being 0.56 it's very likely he would have scored those 1-3 extra goals to get himself in the top 3, maybe even on top in the goalscorer charts. with Rashford only ending on 12 in this matrix he would have ended lower than 9th

with players like DCL/Kane/Sterling/Tammy overtaking Rashy's 12 goals in the non pen goals leaderboards.

conclusion (rankings with pens included): Martial and Rashford would both have been higher up on the charts, but not high enough. They would still be around 3-5 goals off the golden boot. They be ranked 4th-6th maybe, while they are 8th and 9th atm

conclusion (rankings without pen included): Martial would be inside the top3, maybe even 1st because he gains a lot of the extra games and the fact that he doesn't take pens. Rashford would lose a lot of places because he profits off scoring pen (he already scored 5 this season)

of course this thread was mainly calculated by using imaginary situation where there were no pens and everyone played 31 games. i also never used the amount of minutes played in calculating the topscorers list if everyone played 31

if you'd count this into your calculation i think Aguero comes out on top in most of your results because he gets subbed off nearly every game, same with Ings, while all the other 7 play 80+ minutes in 8/10 games, giving them more chances to score

This was my thread on the topscorers rankings if they all played similar games/minute, i came up with this idea after i saw lots of United talking about Martial/Rashford being topscorers if they didn't get injured

i used goals scored, games played, goals per minute, non penalty goals, goal per game ratio, non-penalty goal per game ratio and i calculated the imaginary standings in the leaderboard if all players played 31 games with penalty and the standings without penaltys

{{end of thread}}

This took quite a while doing research and writing/typing it all out on twitter. Hope you guys liked the idea and are interested in the results.

+

are very appreciated

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