1) They got it wrong and now they’re largely tracking it wrong. I say they, because I predicted this early on, and it only gets worse. Did you know the #newcases in daily reports are actually “old infections newly reported”? H/T @JoshKetter for doing the grunt work on data sets.

2) Most of what is reported is old news and not indicative of what is happening or how we are trending. The important info, ONSET dates, stopped being reported by @CDC in April. This is the only part of that we should be looking at, but alas we cannot . WHY?

3) I cannot stress this enough. @GovAbbott @JudgeClayJ @potus The CDC is now combining PCR & Antibody tests, so the “new cases” could be some of the millions of cases from 4 mos. ago! We might as well ignore the cases being reported, it’s apples and oranges! #DataIlliteracy

4) It's irresponsible to report on #labconfirmed cases without providing an est. for #unreported or #estimatedinfections. The 5% we see in the news is really 0.3% (for ppl. infected). & Far more people have been exposed, but nobody reports the lower #exposuretofatality” ratios.

5)Fatality in Context (i.e. Risk): The risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

6) i.e. we’re capturing most of the deaths but only 5–10% of the infections. Risk varies by age significantly. For kids, they are 20X’s more likely to die from the Flu or Pneumo. than Covid. For those > 70, the risk of fatality is ~2.5% — this is higher for those in poor health.

7) At peak, New York City had around 1 in 6 hospital beds open and around 1 in 10 ICU beds open. Hospitals had capacity. Nationally, the CDC reports that “Covid Like Illness” at most represented ~7% of hospitalizations … it’s currently under 2%. Grossly over-estimated,

8) Back In February, I stated that it will be no more lethal than H1N1 and got slammed for it. This is even over-estimated as they stopped testing for flu in March/April and diagnosed "suspected" COVID. Another inaccuracy. As more antibody tests are done, this rank will go down.

9) The least talked about situation is the larger health crisis that are emerging from lockdowns. I do philanthropy work for a battered women's shelter and they are at OVER capacity, even with the expansion we funded! This is unprecedented, yet only a small portion of the

10) overall detriment the lockdown itself has caused, not to mention the economic meltdown. Up to 50% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by C19, but by the effects of the response, i.e. policies & panic.

11) For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients stopped visiting hospitals, and that is only one small segment of non-covid chronic and acute illness. Bottom line, the new case data must be ignored.

12) It is not as relative as media and politicians make it out to be. The focus should be on mortality FROM COVID not WITH covid, as most WITH covid are OLD infections or asymptomatic and non-related. That, in and of itself, is dishonest! It is, after all, an election year.

@threader_app please compile and unroll this thread :)