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Should we come to Jesus in #FPL #GW33 ? A THREAD
With Kun Aguero due to miss the rest of the EPL season, many managers are considering bringing in his able deputy Gabriel Jesus in GW33 for City's kind fixture run. Here I’ll take a deeper look to try and decide whether to do so.
With Kun Aguero due to miss the rest of the EPL season, many managers are considering bringing in his able deputy Gabriel Jesus in GW33 for City's kind fixture run. Here I’ll take a deeper look to try and decide whether to do so.
Gab seems to have been kicking around for quite a while but he is still only 23, having joined City at just 19 in Jan 2017. He should just now be coming into his prime as a player. Personally I rate him very highly as he has a very broad skill-set and few weaknesses as a forward.
He has 37 gls in 94 apps for City (in all comps) but as we well know, a lot of his playing time comes off the bench behind Kun. On a per min basis he's always delivered though - in his 3 full EPL seasons he has 30 gls & 16 (fantasy) asts in 4186 mins (10 & 6 coming this season).
In terms of gauging Pep’s current plans with respect to Gab, quotes and rumours are all over the place and don’t help a great deal. I believe from everything I’ve read and from his performances that Gab remains firmly in Pep’s plans as an overqualified backup at the #9...
...with the potential to become the starter in future if his game and production continue to improve. He is a player who clearly wants more minutes and who I believe Pep wants to keep happy, so there’s every reason to give him plenty of playing time down the stretch without Kun.
My best guess is that as the only fit senior striker, Gab should start > half the remaining EPL fixtures (4-5 of the 7) and you can probably add 1-2 sub apps and 1-2 full blanks. I’d expect some combo of Sterling, Bilva and maybe Gundo to cover the remaining mins at the #9 pos.
So let’s look at the fixtures themselves. Pretty terrific after the Liverpool game. City face 6 of the bottom 8 teams in the league from gw33 onwards, starting with Southampton and Newcastle who are both basically safe and potentially on the ‘beach’ (hopefully not literally…).
BHA looks like the toughest game as they may not be safe yet and are only 13th for xGC on the season. Then 3 very kind fix to finish – Bou 3rd for xGC since gw20, Wat should be safe by then given the interim fixtures, and Norwich will almost certainly be doomed long before GW38.
So let's take a closer look at Gab's #'s. His key appeal is that over his 3 full EPL seasons he has ranked 2nd (0.88), 1st (1.11) & 2nd (0.89) for xGI per 90. His avg xGI/90 over those 3 seasons is sky high at 0.94 and he’s delivered above that at 0.99 gls + (fantasy) asts /90.
This season he has an xGI/90 of 0.89, bettered only by Kun himself (with an insane 1.06), and comfortably ahead of next best Rashford (0.84), Tammy (0.75) and Jimenez (0.67). During Kun’s injury last winter, Gab started 7/8 games (in all comps), scored 6 and notched 3 assists.
In summary, Gab's per min production for City is superb - beyond question. The fixtures from 33 are excellent. The key determinant will be playing time and I believe Pep will want to keep Gab happy by giving him the lion’s share of #9 minutes across the remainder of the season.
If he hits my expected marks of 3-4 starts, 1-2 sub apps and 1 full game off then I believe Gab should deliver v well across GWs 33-38 with the potential for explosive returns in the (captainable) home games - NEW in 34, BOU in 36, NOR in 38 – in particular.
Thanks for reading!
Thanks for reading!
