Tukey’s #ClawEagle Op. planned & coordinated with #Iran seems aimed at not just #PKK in #Qandil but the de facto annexation of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey's advanced deep into KRG region & set up many new bases & stationed 1000s of soldiers in #Zakho, #Dehok, #Erbil areas. 1/9

Turkey's ultimate aim might be direct control of #KRG through an arrangement similar to the one between #Israel & #PA whereby #PDK - & perhaps to a lesser extent #PUK - will act as its native subcontractor controlling Kurdish civil society in main cities and urban centres. 2/9

Economically, this will fully integrate KRG-controled region into Turkey's extractive & construction capitalism. Depending on the conditions in Baghdad & wider region Turkey might gradually expand this semi-colonial zone to include oil-rich Kirkuk & #Mosul. 3/9

(Geo)politiacally it will further disconnect #Rojava from Iraq & Qandil enabling Turkey to contain & if needed destroy them separately. As for Iran: its economy being strangled by US sanctions & #COVID19, it's supporting Turkey to get Turkish help to bypass US sanctions ... 4/9

... get hard currency through its natural gas export, pressurise #Russia for marginalising Iran in Syria & destroy its own Kurdish opposition currently based in Iraqi Kurdistan. Also confident of its long-term strategic influence over the #Shia/Southern #Iraq, Iran might 5/9

not have strong objection to Turkish semi-colonisation of at least N. & W. parts of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran also can still remain influential through its close links with #PUK.
Moreover, Iran is weary of PKK being aligned with US in case of a US-Iran conflict which would . 6/9

pose a serious challenge to Iran. So Turkey's weakening of #PKK & the disconnection of Rojava from Iraq & PKK in Qandil are also in Iran’s interest, which also undermines #Rojava's bargaining position vis-à-vis Assad. In Turkey's case we have to add its occupation of large 7/9

areas of N. Syria & de facto of W. #Libya, which shows Turkey’s determination to achieve militarily what sought via #Arab_Spring. Also, unsure of Trump re-election Turkey wants to create as many facts on the gorund as possible before US elections. 8/9

Turkey-Iran partnership has traditionally been based on a common strategic anti-Kurdish stance but it increasingly seems being reclibearted to reshape #MENA. Or I might just be reading too much into otherwise some contingent developments driven by short-term goals. We'll see. 9/9

P.S. In first tweet in the areas of Iraqi Kurdistan Turkey is currently attacking I should have also included #Sinjar, where #Yazidis were subjected to #ISIS's attempted genocide.