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The US& #39;s situation is much worse than people realize.
We& #39;re not just reaching historical maximums in cases. We& #39;re growing exponentially again.
This chart shows current daily cases and projects for the next 3 weeks if growth continues as in the last week.
[1/11]
![The US& #39;s situation is much worse than people realize.We& #39;re not just reaching historical maximums in cases. We& #39;re growing exponentially again.This chart shows current daily cases and projects for the next 3 weeks if growth continues as in the last week. [1/11]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbbnzTgU4Ac5hQn.jpg "The US& #39;s situation is much worse than people realize.We& #39;re not just reaching historical maximums in cases. We& #39;re growing exponentially again.This chart shows current daily cases and projects for the next 3 weeks if growth continues as in the last week. [1/11]")
We& #39;re not just reaching historical maximums in cases. We& #39;re growing exponentially again.
This chart shows current daily cases and projects for the next 3 weeks if growth continues as in the last week.
[1/11]
If you& #39;re having a deja vu, that& #39;s because this is exactly where we were 3 months ago, when we were alerting the world of the danger of exponential growth. [2/11]
I used to do this type of analysis for the world, and then I went into the detail of the countries. So let& #39;s do that again, this time with US states. [3/11]
![I used to do this type of analysis for the world, and then I went into the detail of the countries. So let& #39;s do that again, this time with US states. [3/11]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbboUsjVcAc8xpo.jpg "I used to do this type of analysis for the world, and then I went into the detail of the countries. So let& #39;s do that again, this time with US states. [3/11]")
34 states are growing in cases. Too bad I can& #39;t capitalize numbers. Over 2/3 of US states are growing cases. The fastest growth, Idaho, is as a whopping 15% daily growth. That& #39;s 7x in two weeks.
States ordered from highest growth (bottom) to lowest (top) [4/11]
States ordered from highest growth (bottom) to lowest (top) [4/11]
But growth is not everything. Size matters too. Five states account for ~55% of daily cases: Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia and California. [5/11]
If we use the same simple projection for the next few weeks, we get an even worse result, getting into the 70-80k daily cases. I don& #39;t think we& #39;ll get there (eg, hopefully we take measures), but it illustrates the exponential growth we& #39;re getting into. [6/11]
![If we use the same simple projection for the next few weeks, we get an even worse result, getting into the 70-80k daily cases. I don& #39;t think we& #39;ll get there (eg, hopefully we take measures), but it illustrates the exponential growth we& #39;re getting into. [6/11]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbbosyVUMAEVBhu.jpg "If we use the same simple projection for the next few weeks, we get an even worse result, getting into the 70-80k daily cases. I don& #39;t think we& #39;ll get there (eg, hopefully we take measures), but it illustrates the exponential growth we& #39;re getting into. [6/11]")
And no, this is not due to more testing. [7/11]
![And no, this is not due to more testing. [7/11]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebbo2T-UwAARmhX.jpg "And no, this is not due to more testing. [7/11]")
Do you remember the debate back in March? "We shouldn& #39;t panic!" In retrospect, panicking was a reasonable choice. Maybe if we had panicked in the US, we wouldn& #39;t be where we are. [8/11]
I& #39;ve thought about that term, "panicking". The issue is that it& #39;s a mix of two things: acting fast and mindlessly. That& #39;s what we& #39;ve done, but sequentially.
First, we acted fast.
Then, we acted mindlessly.
[9/11]
First, we acted fast.
Then, we acted mindlessly.
[9/11]
Now we need to revert that: Stop acting mindlessly, and start acting fast. We& #39;re back at that moment when every day counts. [10/11]
The governors of the top 5 states in terms of cases must act. @BrianKempGA (Georgia), @GregAbbott_TX, @dougducey(Arizona), @RonDeSantisFL (Florida) & @GavinNewsom must decide to control this epidemic. Hundreds of thousands of lives are in their hands—again. [11/11]
